Eine entglobalisierte Welt?

Cambridge, Mass.: Es mag ein paar Monate, es mag zwei Jahre dauern, aber so oder so werden sich die Vereinigten Staaten und andere hoch entwickelte Volkswirtschaften letztlich von der heutigen Krise erholen. Die Weltwirtschaft freilich dürfte danach kaum mehr aussehen wie heute.

Selbst wenn die Krise ihren Höhepunkt erst einmal überschritten hat, dürften wir uns in einer in gewissem Umfang entglobalisierten Welt wiederfinden – mit langsamer wachsendem internationalen Handel, weniger externer Finanzierung und deutlich reduzierter Neigung der reichen Länder, große Leistungsbilanzdefizite anzuhäufen. Ist das der Untergang der Entwicklungsländer?

Nicht zwangsläufig. Wachstum gibt es in der sich entwickelnden Welt tendenziell in drei Varianten. Die Erste ist ein durch Auslandskredite angetriebenes Wachstum. Die Zweite ist Wachstum als Beiprodukt eines Rohstoffbooms. Und die Dritte ist Wachstum, dass durch eine wirtschaftliche Umstrukturierung und Diversifizierung in neue Produkte angetrieben wird.

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