Paul Lachine

一个危机,两种解读

芝加哥—世界发达民主国家陷入了危机,关于什么是危机的源头以及如何补救,出现了两种相互对立的声音。第一种为人所熟知的诊断是需求因为危机前积累的高债务而崩溃。最具支出倾向的家庭(以及国家)再也无法借到钱了。为了重振增长,必须鼓励其他家庭和国家来支出——仍然能够借钱的政府应该扩大赤字,同时极低的利率应该阻止节约的家庭继续储蓄。

这种观点认为,粗犷的预算是一种美德,至少在短期看是如此。从中期看,只要增长能够得到提振,债务就能活得偿付,而金融部门得到了抑制,因此不会在世界上掀起另一场危机。

这种观点是标准的凯恩斯主义,只是根据债务危机做了些许修正。该观点受到了大部分政府官员、中央银行和华尔街经济学家的支持,已无需再赘述了。其优点在于向决策者明确指出了行动方向,还给出了符合政治周期的预期回报。不幸的是,尽管已经实施了刺激措施,但增长仍然疲软,而且,从短期看,要找到给力的新支出之源越来越困难了。

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