Crisis en plena fuga

MUNICH - Por un tiempo, parecía que el programa de crédito de 1 billón de euros del Banco Central Europeo para inyectar liquidez al sistema bancario de Europa hubiera calmado a los mercados financieros globales. Pero ahora las tasas de interés de los bonos de los gobiernos italiano y español vuelven a subir, acercándose al 6%.

Por supuesto, puede que este no sea el punto de ruptura más allá del cual la carga de la deuda se hace insostenible. Después de todo, las tasas de interés en el sur de Europa estaban muy por encima del 10% en la década anterior a la introducción del euro. Incluso Alemania en ese tiempo tenía que pagar más del 6% a los tenedores de bonos. Sin embargo, los mercados están dando señales inequívocas de sus crecientes duda sobre si España e Italia estarán dispuestos a soportar la carga de su deuda.

El problema principal es España, donde la deuda externa privada y pública es mayor que las de Grecia, Portugal, Irlanda e Italia juntos y, como en Grecia, se acerca al 100% del PIB (93% para ser precisos). Una cuarta parte de la fuerza de trabajo y la mitad de los jóvenes están desempleados, lo que refleja la pérdida de competitividad del país tras la explosión de la burbuja inmobiliaria, inflada por el crédito barato en euros en el período anterior a la crisis. El déficit de cuenta corriente se mantiene en el 3,5% del PIB, a pesar de la disminución de las importaciones inducida por la recesión, mientras que la contracción económica hará que España vuelva a incumplir su objetivo de déficit presupuestario.

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