Crisi in escalation

MONACO – Per un attimo è sembrato che il programma di credito da 1000 miliardi di euro della Banca centrale europea, teso a iniettare liquidità nel sistema bancario dell’Europa, avesse tranquillizzato i mercati finanziari globali. Ma ora i tassi di interesse sui titoli di Stato italiani e spagnoli registrano un nuovo incremento e tornano a sfiorare il 6%.

Ovviamente, non si tratta del limite oltre il quale il peso debitorio diventa insostenibile. Dopo tutto, i tassi di interesse nel Sud Europa sono stati ben al di sotto del 10% nel decennio precedente l’introduzione dell’euro. Anche la Germania in quel periodo ha dovuto pagare i titolari di bond con cedole superiori al 6%. Ciò nonostante, i mercati stanno chiaramente manifestando un forte dubbio sull’eventualità che Spagna o Italia siano disposte a sostenere il proprio onere debitorio.

Il problema principale è la Spagna, dove il debito estero privato e pubblico è superiore a quello di Grecia, Portogallo, Irlanda e Italia messi insieme, e come in Grecia, si avvicina al 100% del Pil (93% per la precisione). Un quarto della forza lavoro e la metà dei giovani spagnoli sono disoccupati; questo scenario riflette la perdita di competitività del Paese sulla scia della bolla immobiliare gonfiata dal credito facile del periodo pre-crisi. Il deficit delle partite correnti si attesta al 3,5% del Pil, malgrado il calo delle importazioni indotto dalla recessione, mentre la contrazione economica spingerà la Spagna a mancare di nuovo il proprio target sul deficit di bilancio.

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