大逃亡危机

慕尼黑—曾经有那么一段时间,看上去欧洲央行向欧洲银行系统注资1万亿欧元信用以提振流动性的计划已让金融市场平静下来。但眼下,意大利和西班牙国债利率再次开始上升,正在向6%靠近。

当然,这或许并不是债务负担变得不可持续的临界点。毕竟,南欧国家的利率在欧元引入前要大大高于10%。即使是德国,当时也必须向债权人支付6%的利息。尽管如此,市场清楚地标明,对西班牙和意大利是否愿意承担债务负担的疑虑正在与日俱增。

主要的问题是西班牙,它的公私债务比希腊、葡萄牙、爱尔兰和意大利加起来还要多,已经达到了GDP的近100%(确切地说,是93%),与希腊相仿佛。四分之一的西班牙人口和一半年轻人没有工作,这表明危机之前由便宜的欧元信用引起的地产泡沫导致该国竞争力的流失。经常项目赤字相当于GDP的3%,这还是衰退导致进口大幅下降情况下的数字;而经济收缩将使西班牙再次脱离预算赤字目标。

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