全球变暖的成本计算

英国政府最近发布了迄今为止关于全球变暖的经济成本和风险最为全面的研究报告,并提出了可能减少温室气体排放的措施,希望藉此避免一些最可怕的后果。这份报告在继任世界银行首席经济学家的,伦敦经济学院尼古拉斯▪斯特恩爵士的主持下完成。它明确指出问题的关键不在于我们是否能够负担得起应对全球变暖的措施,而在于我们是否能够承受无所作为的后果。

该报告提出的计划其成本只等于年消费的1%,但却能为世界节省5倍的风险等价成本。所报告的全球变暖成本比早先的研究中提出的要高,那是因为它将越来越多的新证据考虑在内,比如全球变暖是一个高度复杂且非线性的过程。一种不可忽视的可能性是它发生的速度比我们先前想象的要快,而且变暖的程度也比我们先前想象的要高。

的确,这项研究实际上很可能还大大低估了相关成本:例如,气候变化会引起天气的更大可变性,可能造成墨西哥湾暖流的变化消失—欧洲特别担心的问题—并引发大量的疾病。

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