坏主意传染病

纽约——

2008年的大衰退已经演变为了北大西洋衰退:这场衰退的主体是陷入低增长、高失业泥淖的欧洲和美国,而不是主要新兴市场。这一次,手拉手迈向大溃败结局的是欧洲和美国。泡沫的破裂导致了大规模凯恩斯主义刺激,这些刺激避免了衰退的大大恶化,但也加剧了巨额预算赤字问题。而由此产生的应对措施——大规模削减支出——意味着不可接受的高失业水平(资源的巨大浪费以及苦难的过度供给)必将持续下去,可能在多年内都得不到改善。

最终,欧盟决定帮助其陷入财政困境的成员国。欧盟已经别无选择:金融动荡可能会从小国(希腊和爱尔兰)向大国(意大利和西班牙)蔓延,欧元的生存随之也受到了越来越严重的威胁。欧洲领导人意识到,受困国家的债务将变得不可治理,除非这些国家能够实现经济增长,而如果没有援助,经济增长就是痴人说梦。

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