Une confédération pour le Kosovo

Les échéances se rapprochent pour le Kosovo. À moins qu’un accord, soutenu par les Nations unies, ne soit trouvé d’ici début décembre, il est probable que la population en majorité albanaise de la province déclare unilatéralement son indépendance – une initiative que les Etats-Unis ont déclaré soutenir.

Cette évolution aurait des conséquences désastreuses. Le gouvernement russe serait furieux, craignant qu’une sécession du Kosovo – qu’il soit ensuite reconnu ou non au niveau international – pourrait encourager les mouvements séparatistes de l’ancien empire soviétique. La Serbie s’y opposerait plus fermement encore. Dusan Prorokovic, le secrétaire d’État serbe pour le Kosovo, a indiqué que son pays pourrait avoir recours à la force pour maintenir sa souveraineté. Même si le gouvernement hésite, il est possible que les factions ultranationalistes poussent le Premier ministre Vojislav Kostunica à envoyer des troupes : même si la présence de l’ONU au Kosovo est très faible (40 « observateurs militaires » et 2116 policiers seulement), les 15.000 soldats de l’OTAN stationnés au Kosovo rendent une confrontation armée potentiellement très dangereuse.

Après huit ans d’administration internationale, la majorité albanaise du Kosovo a goûté à la liberté et attend avec impatience une indépendance pleine et entière. Mais la Serbie estime que la province reste une partie essentielle de sa tradition historique et culturelle. L’indépendance ne serait pas mieux acceptée par la population serbe qui a déjà assisté avec désarroi à la dislocation de la « grande Serbie », avec dernièrement la sécession du Monténégro. La Serbie est prête à ne concéder qu’une « autonomie élargie » au Kosovo, et une capacité restreinte à négocier des accords internationaux.

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