Paul Lachine

Un point de vue objectif sur les déséquilibres sino-américains

PEKIN - Avant juillet 2007 la plupart des économistes estimaient que les déséquilibres mondiaux constituaient la principale menace à l'égard de la croissance économique mondiale. Ils pensaient que l'augmentation du rapport dette extérieure nette américaine/PIB (le résultat du déficit chronique des comptes courants américains) mettrait un sérieux coup de frein au flux de capitaux entrants, ce qui affaiblirait le dollar, pousserait à la hausse les taux d'intérêt et plongerait finalement l'économie américaine dans la crise.

Mais les choses ne se sont pas passées ainsi. La crise est née de la débâcle des prêts immobiliers à risque aux USA, qui a rapidement plongé l'économie mondiale dans la plus grande récession depuis les années 1930.

La plupart des économistes n'ont pas prévu la crise parce qu'ils n'ont pas porté une attention suffisante à la rapide augmentation de la dette totale américaine. Par contre ils se sont focalisés sur la dette extérieure américaine tout en ignorant celle des ménages (dette immobilière et dette à la consommation), celle de l'Etat, celle des entreprises et celle du secteur financier.

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