Paul Lachine

Vyvážený pohled na čínsko-americké nevyváženosti

PEKING – Před červencem roku 2007 se většina ekonomů shodovala, že nejvážnější hrozbou pro světový růst jsou globální nevyváženosti. Tvrdilo se, že narůstající poměr zahraniční dluhu Spojených států vůči HDP – důsledek chronických deficitů běžného účtu – začne zostra brzdit kapitálové přílivy, čímž oslabí dolar, požene nahoru úrokové sazby a pohrouží americkou ekonomiku do krize.

Tento scénář se však nenaplnil. Krize namísto toho vzešla z amerického debaklu podřadných hypoték, který globální ekonomiku rychle stáhl do nejhlubší recese od 30. let 20. století.

Většina ekonomů nedokázala předvídat ekonomickou dynamiku, která skutečně vyústila v krizi, protože nevěnovali dostatečnou pozornost překotnému růstu celkového amerického dluhu. Zaměřovali se výhradně na zahraniční dluh USA a přehlíželi dluhy domácností (hypotéky a spotřební zadlužení), veřejný dluh, firemní dluhy a finanční dluh.

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