Una “tercera vía” para enfrentar a Rusia

PARIS – “Integremos a Rusia si podemos hacerlo, pero contengámosla si es necesario”. Estas dos alternativas ya definieron la estrategia occidental hacia Rusia a mediados de los años 90. Desde entonces, Rusia puede haber cambiado radicalmente, pero no nuestras interrogantes sobre ella. ¿Qué se hace cuando el gran vecino amplía la brecha que existe entre su cultura, que es europea, y su sistema político, que se está haciendo cada vez más "asiático", al menos en el viejo y sombrío sentido de "despotismo oriental"?

¿Tendría que ser la mejor respuesta al retorno de las ambiciones imperiales de Rusia una versión moderna de la Santa Alianza, que busque garantizar la estabilidad y contener a la nueva nación descarriada del mundo? ¿O bien es necesaria una versión moderna de la Conferencia de Yalta, orientada a redefinir los límites políticos de Europa? ¿Podría ser la respuesta un poco de ambas cosas?

Si Rusia se está convirtiendo en lo que era la Francia revolucionaria bajo Napoleón, o si está retrocediendo a la forma soviética –imbuida de una ideología totalitaria, pero con apetito por conquistar y reconquistar- lo que se precisa no es la “liga de democracias” propugnada por algunos conservadores de Estados Unidos. Lo que se necesita, en lugar de ello, es una “liga por la estabilidad” que incluya a actores prominentes como China, India y otros países más interesados en el crecimiento económico que en “desestabilizar” el sistema internacional. Una estrategia así implica, primero que todo, una sólida relación de colaboración con China, no porque esté evolucionando en dirección a la democracia, sino porque es una potencia que privilegia el status quo.

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