Politique européenne : une "troisième voie" face à la Russie

PARIS – "Traitons avec la Russie si nous le pouvons, mais contenons la si nous le devons". Cette alternative définissait déjà la stratégie occidentale à l'égard de la Russie au milieu des années 1990. Depuis, la Russie s'est transformée de manière spectaculaire, mais pas nos questions à son sujet. Que faire quand votre important voisin élargit le fossé entre sa culture, européenne, et son système politique, de plus en plus "asiatique" dans le mauvais sens du terme, autrement dit "despotique".

La meilleure réponse au retour des ambitions impériales de la Russie serait-elle la version moderne d'une Sainte alliance en faveur de la stabilité pour contenir le nouveau mouton noir du monde ? Ou bien une nouvelle conférence de Yalta pour redessiner les frontières politiques de l'Europe serait-elle nécessaire ? Ou bien un peu des deux ?

Si la Russie se rapproche de la France révolutionnaire sous Napoléon ou si elle revient à une forme soviétique - sans l'idéologie totalitaire, mais avec le même appétit de conquête - une "ligue des démocraties" que proposent certains conservateurs américains ne suffira pas pour y faire face. Une "ligue de la stabilité" serait préférable. Elle comporterait des acteurs importants tels que la Chine, l'Inde et d'autres pays davantage intéressés par la croissance économique que par le bouleversement du système international. Une telle stratégie suppose un véritable partenariat avec la Chine, non parce qu'elle évolue vers la démocratie, mais parce qu'elle constitue un élément important pour maintenir le statu-quo.

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