对抗俄罗斯的“第三种途径”

巴黎-“让我们和俄罗斯接触如果可以,但是牵制它如果必须这样。” 在20世纪90年代中期,这两种选择已经定义了西方对俄罗斯的策略。从那以后,俄罗斯可能已经发生了巨大的变化,但是这不是我们关注的问题。当你强大的邻居加大了存在在其欧洲文化和其变得越来越“亚洲”的政治体系——至少在糟糕的“东方专制”的旧观念上如此——之间的距离的时候,你会怎么做呢?

对俄罗斯帝王野心回归的最好回答,应该是一个现代版的用于牵制世界新的叛逆者的稳定神圣同盟吗?或者,一个目的是为了重新划定欧洲政治边界的现代雅尔塔会议,必要吗?答案可能是两者兼而有之吗?

如果俄罗斯正变成像拿破仑统治下的革命法国那样,或者回归到苏维埃的形态——虽然被剥夺了极权主义的意识形态,但是具有征服和再征服的欲望——需要的东西不是一些美国保守分子支持的“民主联盟”。相反,需要的是包括像中国、印度这样的重要国家以及其他对经济增长要比对“破坏”国际体系更感兴趣的国家的“稳定联盟”。这样的策略意味着,首先,要和中国建立稳固的伙伴关系,这不是因为它正在向民主的方向发展,而是因为它是一个现存的强国。

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