Una estrategia de “portfolio” para el cambio climático

El mundo ha intentado con escaso éxito recortar las emisiones de carbono bajo el Protocolo de Kyoto. No obstante, el enorme esfuerzo realizado para implementar el Protocolo revela la magnitud del trabajo que requerirá producir el próximo tratado, que debería sellarse en Copenhague en diciembre de 2009. Los activistas ejercerán presión para que se adopten políticas duras y de amplio alcance, pero seguirá habiendo una fuerte resistencia de parte de los países preocupados por su vitalidad económica.

Las nuevas negociaciones tendrán una ventaja con respecto a los esfuerzos anteriores, porque los gobiernos ahora entienden la necesidad de un portfolio de esfuerzos de adaptación, mitigación e investigación. La nueva investigación que mis colegas y yo llevamos a cabo para el Centro del Consenso de Copenhague en Dinamarca explora la efectividad de diferentes respuestas a este desafío global, pero respalda fuertemente la estrategia del portfolio por varias razones.

Primero, hoy sabemos que la adaptación será esencial, porque las temperaturas aumentarán otro 0,6ºC para 2100 aunque las emisiones de gases de tipo invernadero se eliminaran mañana. También sabemos que el impacto del cambio climático no estará distribuido de manera pareja en todo el mundo.

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