Une approche « portefeuille » du changement climatique

Le Protocole de Kyoto n’a rencontré qu’un succès limité pour réduire les émissions de carbone. Les énormes efforts déployés pour faire appliquer ce Protocole donnent toutefois une idée des difficultés qui se présenteront pour accoucher du prochain traité, qui doit être ratifié à Copenhague en décembre 2009. Les militants écologistes exerceront des pressions pour faire adopter des politiques rigoureuses et de grande ampleur, mais il faut s’attendre à ce que les pays préoccupés par la vitalité de leur économie continuent à opposer une forte résistance.

Le nouveau cycle de négociations présente toutefois un avantage sur le cycle précédent : les gouvernements comprennent aujourd’hui l’importance des stratégies « portefeuille », associant la recherche et des mesures d’atténuation et d’adaptation aux changements climatiques. Les recherches effectuées par mes collègues et moi-même pour le centre du consensus de Copenhague au Danemark, et portant sur l’efficacité des différentes réponses possibles à ce défi planétaire, nous ont amené à soutenir fermement l’approche portefeuille pour différentes raisons.

Premièrement, nous savons à présent que l’adaptation est fondamentale parce que la température s’élèvera de 0,6° d’ici 2100 même si les gaz à effet de serre étaient éliminés demain. Nous savons également que l’impact du changement climatique ne se fera pas sentir de manière égale partout dans le monde.

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