Poor colorado town Christian Science Monitor

Die Trumpsche Unsicherheit

NEW YORK – Immer im Januar versuche ich, eine Prognose für das Jahr zu geben. Wirtschaftliche Vorhersagen sind bekanntlich schwierig, aber obwohl im Wunsch von Harry Truman nach einem einseitigen Ökonomen (der nicht „andererseits“ sagen kann) viel Wahres liegt, war meine Trefferquote bisher nicht schlecht.

In den letzten Jahren habe ich richtig vorhergesehen, dass die Erholung nach der Großen Rezession von 2008 ohne stärkere finanzielle Stimuli (die es weder in Europa noch in den Vereinigten Staaten gegeben hat) nur langsam voran geht. Bei diesen Prognosen habe ich mich weniger auf komplexe ökonometrische Modelle gestützt, sondern mehr auf die Analyse grundlegender wirtschaftlicher Kräfte.

Anfang 2016 schien es beispielsweise klar, dass sich die Schwäche der weltweiten Gesamtnachfrage der letzten paar Jahre kaum dramatisch ändern würde. Also glaubte ich, dass diejenigen, die an eine stärkere Erholung glaubten, die Welt durch eine rosarote Brille sehen. Und die wirtschaftlichen Ereignisse entwickelten sich weitgehend so, wie ich es erwartet hatte.

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