Poor colorado town Christian Science Monitor

特朗普的不确定性

发自纽约——每年一月,我都会尝试对未来一年作出预测。经济预测是件极为困难的事情;以至于哈里·杜鲁门总统(Harry Truman)曾要求手下给他找一位独臂经济学家——这样此人就无法模棱两可地说“另一方面(on the other hand)”了——但一直以来我的预测还是靠谱的。

这几年来我正确地预见到,在缺乏更强有力财政刺激政策(在欧洲或美国都一样)的情况下,2008年大衰退的复苏进程将较为缓慢。同时我的预测更多地依赖于对基本经济力量的分析,而非复杂的经济计量模型。

例如在2016年初,很显然在过去几年中呈现的全球总需求不足将不大可能出现巨大改变。 因此我认为那些相信会实现强劲复苏的预测者是过于乐观了,最终实际的经济发展也与我的预测一致。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/QITQJYc/zh;
  1. China corruption Isaac Lawrence/Getty Images

    The Next Battle in China’s War on Corruption

    • Chinese President Xi Jinping knows well the threat that corruption poses to the authority of the Communist Party of China and the state it controls. 
    • But moving beyond Xi's anti-corruption purge to build robust and lasting anti-graft institutions will not be easy, owing to enduring opportunities for bureaucratic capture.
  2. Italy unemployed demonstration SalvatoreEsposito/Barcroftimages / Barcroft Media via Getty Images

    Putting Europe’s Long-Term Unemployed Back to Work

    Across the European Union, millions of people who are willing and able to work have been unemployed for a year or longer, at great cost to social cohesion and political stability. If the EU is serious about stopping the rise of populism, it will need to do more to ensure that labor markets are working for everyone.

  3. Latin America market Federico Parra/Getty Images

    A Belt and Road for the Americas?

    In a time of global uncertainty, a vision of “made in the Americas” prosperity provides a unifying agenda for the continent. If implemented, the US could reassert its historical leadership among a group of countries that share its fundamental values, as well as an interest in inclusive economic growth and rising living standards.

  4. Startup office Mladlen Antonov/Getty Images

    How Best to Promote Research and Development

    Clearly, there is something appealing about a start-up-based innovation strategy: it feels democratic, accessible, and so California. But it is definitely not the only way to boost research and development, or even the main way, and it is certainly not the way most major innovations in the US came about during the twentieth century.

  5. Trump Trade speech Bill Pugliano/Getty Images .

    Preparing for the Trump Trade Wars

    In the first 11 months of his presidency, Donald Trump has failed to back up his words – or tweets – with action on a variety of fronts. But the rest of the world's governments, and particularly those in Asia and Europe, would be mistaken to assume that he won't follow through on his promised "America First" trade agenda.