Poor colorado town Christian Science Monitor

特朗普的不确定性

发自纽约——每年一月,我都会尝试对未来一年作出预测。经济预测是件极为困难的事情;以至于哈里·杜鲁门总统(Harry Truman)曾要求手下给他找一位独臂经济学家——这样此人就无法模棱两可地说“另一方面(on the other hand)”了——但一直以来我的预测还是靠谱的。

这几年来我正确地预见到,在缺乏更强有力财政刺激政策(在欧洲或美国都一样)的情况下,2008年大衰退的复苏进程将较为缓慢。同时我的预测更多地依赖于对基本经济力量的分析,而非复杂的经济计量模型。

例如在2016年初,很显然在过去几年中呈现的全球总需求不足将不大可能出现巨大改变。 因此我认为那些相信会实现强劲复苏的预测者是过于乐观了,最终实际的经济发展也与我的预测一致。

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