Poor colorado town Christian Science Monitor


发自纽约——每年一月,我都会尝试对未来一年作出预测。经济预测是件极为困难的事情;以至于哈里·杜鲁门总统(Harry Truman)曾要求手下给他找一位独臂经济学家——这样此人就无法模棱两可地说“另一方面(on the other hand)”了——但一直以来我的预测还是靠谱的。


例如在2016年初,很显然在过去几年中呈现的全球总需求不足将不大可能出现巨大改变。 因此我认为那些相信会实现强劲复苏的预测者是过于乐观了,最终实际的经济发展也与我的预测一致。

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