Christine Lagargde World Bank Photo Collection/Flickr

Otro año de debilidad para la economía mundial

WASHINGTON, DC – El pasado abril, el Fondo Monetario Internacional proyectó que la economía mundial crecería el 3,5 % en 2015. Durante los meses siguientes, fue reduciendo continuamente su pronóstico hasta llegar al 3,1 % en octubre. Pero el FMI continuó insistiendo —como lo viene haciendo con una predecibilidad casi banal en los últimos siete años— que el año que viene será mejor, aunque con casi completa seguridad se equivoca una vez más.

Para empezar, la tasa de crecimiento del comercio mundial es de un anémico 2 %, frente al 8 % registrado entre 2003 y 2007. Mientras que el crecimiento del comercio durante esos años vertiginosos superó con creces al del PIB mundial —cuyo promedio fue del 4,5 %— últimamente las tasas de crecimiento del comercio y el PIB han sido aproximadamente iguales. Incluso si el crecimiento del PIB supera al del comercio este año, probablemente no vaya más allá del 2,7 %.

La pregunta es: ¿por qué? Según Christina y David Romer de la Universidad de California, Berkeley, los temblores posteriores a las crisis financieras modernas —es decir, desde la Segunda Guerra Mundial— se desvanecen pasados 2 o 3 años. Los economistas de Harvard Carmen Reinhart y Kenneth Rogoff dicen que son necesarios cinco años para que un país se recupere de una crisis financiera. Y, de hecho, los trastornos financieros de 2007-2008 han desaparecido en gran medida. ¿Cómo se explica entonces la lentitud de la recuperación económica?

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