Christine Lagargde World Bank Photo Collection/Flickr

Ein weiteres langsames Jahr für die Weltwirtschaft

WASHINGTON, DC – Im letzten April prognostizierte der Internationale Währungsfonds, die Weltwirtschaft werde 2015 um 3,5% wachsen.. In den Folgemonaten wurde diese Vorhersage immer weiter gesenkt und erreichte im Oktober 3,1%.. Aber der IWF behauptet weiterhin mit fast banaler Vorhersagbarkeit – wie bereits in den letzten sieben Jahren – das nächste Jahr werde besser. Und er wird damit fast sicher wieder daneben liegen.

Zunächst einmal wächst der Welthandel jährlich nur um magere 2%, verglichen mit 8% von in den Jahren von 2003 bis 2007. Während das Wachstum des Handels in diesen Jahren dasjenige des BIP (durchschnittlich 4,5%) weit übertroffen hat, sind die beiden Werte in letzter Zeit etwa gleich. Selbst wenn das BIP-Wachstum das Handelswachstum in diesem Jahr übertreffen sollte, wird es doch kaum über 2,7% liegen.

Die Frage ist: Warum? Laut Christina und David Romer von der University of California, Berkeley, flauen die Nachwirkungen moderner Finanzkrisen – seit dem Zweiten Weltkrieg– nach zwei bis drei Jahren ab. Die Harvard-Ökonomen Carmen Reinhart und Kenneth Rogoff sagen, ein Land brauche fünf Jahre, um sich von einer Finanzkrise zu erholen. Und tatsächlich sind die finanziellen Verwerfungen von 2007-2008 größtenteils abgeklungen. Was also ist der Grund für die zähe wirtschaftliche Erholung?

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