Christine Lagargde World Bank Photo Collection/Flickr

全球经济缓慢增长又一年

华盛顿—去年4月,国际货币基金组织(IMF)预测2015年世界经济将增长3.5%。在随后的几个月中,这一预测被逐步调低,10月份时下降到3.1%。但IMF仍然坚持——在过去七年中它一贯如此,几乎没有什么预见性可言——明年会更好。但几乎可以肯定,IMF又错了。

首先,世界贸易年增长率只有区区2%,而2003—2007年间高达8%。这几年中,贸易增长远远高于世界GDP(平均增长率为4.5%),但最近贸易和GDP增长大致相当。即使今年GDP增长超过贸易增长,也可能无法超过2.7%。

问题在于为什么。据加州大学伯克利分校的克里斯蒂娜和大卫·罗默(Christina and David Romer),现代金融危机(二战后)的余波会持续2—3年时间才会消失。哈佛大学经济学家卡门·莱因哈特(Carmen Reinhart)和肯尼斯·罗格夫(Kenneth Rogoff)说,一国需要五年时间才能从金融危机中走出。而事实上,2007—2008年的金融动荡已经基本消失。因此,是什么导致了经济复苏滞后?

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