O que falhou em 2008?

BERKELEY – Para resolver um problema, não basta saber o que fazer. É necessária a implementação da solução e a determinação para mudar de rumo caso os resultados demonstrem que afinal não se sabia tanto quanto se pensava. Esta é a mensagem veiculada em dois livros recentes que, no seu conjunto, dão a conhecer tudo o que é preciso saber sobre a crise financeira de 2008: as causas, as medidas que devem ser tomadas para evitar que se repita e por que razão ainda é necessário tomar tais medidas.

O primeiro livro intitula-se As Mudanças e os Choques (The Shifts and the Shocks) e é da autoria do jornalista britânico conservador Martin Wolf, que começa por identificar as grandes mudanças que abriram caminho ao desastre económico que continua a moldar o mundo de hoje. Utiliza como ponto de partida o substancial aumento da riqueza verificado entre os 0,1% e 0,01% mais ricos do mundo e a consequente pressão para que as pessoas, os governos e as empresas assumam níveis de dívida cada vez mais insustentáveis.

Entretanto, os decisores políticos deixaram-se ludibriar pela ampla aceitação de teorias económicas como a "hipótese do mercado eficiente", que pressupõe que a tomada de decisões por parte dos investidores é sempre racional e baseada em toda a informação disponível. Em consequência deste facto, os mercados foram desregulamentados, facilitando a comercialização de activos que se considerava serem seguros, mas que na verdade não o eram. Por conseguinte, o risco sistémico proliferou muito para além do que os banqueiros centrais poderiam supor.

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