Cosa è andato storto nel 2008?

BERKELEY – Per risolvere un problema, non basta sapere cosa fare. Bisogna mettere in pratica la soluzione, ed essere disposti a cambiare corso se risulta che in realtà non si era a conoscenza di quanto si pensava. Questo è il messaggio di due libri recenti che dicono tutto quello che serve sapere sulla crisi finanziaria del 2008, cosa l’ha provocata, cosa si può fare per evitare che ricapiti e perchè non è ancora stato fatto ciò che è necessario affinché non si verifichi di nuovo.

Il primo libro è The Shifts and the Shocks(Gli spostamenti e gli shock, ndt) scritto dal giornalista britannico conservatore Martin Wolf che apre il libro catalogando i principali spostamenti che hanno creato le condizioni per il disastro economico che continua a delineare il mondo di oggi. Il suo punto di partenza è l’aumento vertiginoso della ricchezza tra le mani dello 0,1 e lo 0,01% dei più ricchi al mondo e la conseguente pressione sui cittadini, i governi e le aziende a farsi carico di livelli insostenibili di debito.

Nel frattempo, i policymaker si sono lasciati confondere dall’appoggio diffuso alle teorie economiche come “l’ipotesi dell’efficienza dei mercati” secondo cui gli investitori agiscono razionalmente e utilizzano tutte le informazioni disponibili per prendere le loro decisioni. Il risultato è stato invece che i mercati si sono deregolamentati rendendo più facile la negoziazione delle attività finanziarie percepite come sicure quando invece non lo erano. Di conseguenza, il rischio sistemico è aumentato ben oltre la più fervida immaginazione dei banchieri centrali.

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