2008年败在何处?

伯克利—要解决问题,光知道做什么是不够的。你实际上必须实施解决办法——并且在事实证明你知道的并不如你认为的那样多时,你得愿意改变办法。这就是两本新书一起告诉你的信息。这两本新书讲述了你需要知道的关于2008年金融危机的一切:什么引起了金融危机,可以做什么防止它再次发生,以及为何这些事情还没有人去做。

第一本书是《变化和冲击》(The Shifts and the Shocks),作者是保守派英国记者马丁·沃尔夫(Martin Wolf)。在书的开头,他对酝酿了至今仍在影响世界的这场经济灾难的重要变化做了归纳编目。首先,他指出世界最富有的0.1%和0.01%人群财富剧增,这给人民、政府和公司造成了日益不可持续的高负债的压力。

与此同时,决策者因为“有效市场假说”等经济理论的广泛接受而志得意满,有效市场假说认为投资者的行为是理性的,在作出决策时会利用一切可获得的信心。结果,市场监管被放松,交易被认为安全但实际并不安全的资产变得更加容易。结果,系统性风险悄然酝酿,并且超过了央行官员最大胆的想象。

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