1929 ou 1989 ?

PARIS – Alors que la crise économique s'étend et s'aggrave, le monde cherche des analogies historiques pour essayer de comprendre ce qui se passe. Au début de la crise, beaucoup de gens faisaient le rapprochement avec 1982 ou 1973, ce qui était rassurant, car ces deux dates correspondent à des ralentissements économiques cycliques classiques.

Aujourd'hui le climat est bien plus lourd, et l'on évoque de plus en plus 1929 et 1931, même si certains pays continuent à se comporter comme s'il s'agissait d'une crise classique et non d'un événement exceptionnel. La tendance est soit à un excès de modération soit à un effort qui s'exerce dans plusieurs directions à la fois. L'Europe se montre précautionneuse au nom de la défense de l'euro et de la lutte contre la dette, tandis que les USA agissent sur plusieurs fronts pour ne pas gaspiller une occasion idéale de mettre en œuvre des réformes structurelles indispensables.

Pour les géostratégistes, tant du point de vue politique qu'économique, c'est 1989 qui vient spontanément à l'esprit. Certes, la chute de Lehman Brothers n'a rien à voir avec la chute du mur de Berlin. Au premier abord, on peut y voir une antithèse : d'un coté la fin d'un mur qui symbolisait l'oppression et des divisions artificielles et de l'autre l'écroulement d'une institution apparemment indestructible et rassurante du capitalisme financier.

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