1929 nebo 1989?

PAŘÍŽ – Jak se hospodářská krize prohlubuje a rozšiřuje, svět hledá historické analogie, které by nám dění poslední doby pomohly pochopit. Na počátku krize ji mnozí lidé přirovnávali k roku 1982 či 1973, což bylo chlácholivé, neboť obě data se váží ke klasickým cyklickým poklesům.

Dnes je nálada mnohem pochmurnější a začínají se hojně objevovat odkazy na roky 1929 a 1931, třebaže některé vlády se nepřestávají chovat, jako by krize byla spíše klasická než výjimečná. Prosazují se sklony buď k přílišné zdrženlivosti (Evropa), anebo k rozšiřování snah (Spojené státy). Evropa je obezřetná ve jménu předcházení dluhu a ochrany eura, kdežto USA jednají na mnoha frontách, aby nepromeškaly ideální příležitost k zavedení zoufale potřebných strukturálních reforem.

Geostratégům však s ohledem na politiku i ekonomiku zcela přirozeně přichází na mysl rok 1989. Jistěže, pád bankovního domu Lehman Brothers nemá nic společného s pádem Berlínské zdi. Ba na povrchu se zdá, že jde o naprosté opaky: zřícení zdi symbolizující útlak a umělé rozdělení versus zhroucení zdánlivě nezničitelné a uklidňující instituce finančního kapitalismu.

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