1929年还是1989年?

巴黎-随着经济危机不断加深和蔓延,整个世界一直在寻找历史上的类似事件希望有助于我们了解目前正在发生的情况。一开始,很多人把这次危机比作1982年或1973年所发生的情况,这样得类比是令人宽心的,因为这两段时期意味着典型的周期性衰退。

如今人们的心情却是沉重多了,许多人开始把这次危机与1929年和1931年相比,即使一些国家政府的表现仍然似乎把视目前的情况为是典型的而看见的衰退。目前的趋势是,要么是过度的克制(欧洲),要么是努力的扩展(美国)。欧洲在避免债务和捍卫欧元的名义下正变得谨慎,而美国已经在许多方面行动起来,以利用这一理想的时机来实行急需的结构性改革。

然而,作为地域战略学家,无论是从政治意义还是从经济意义上,让我自然想到的年份是1989年。当然,雷曼兄弟公司的倒闭和柏林墙的倒塌没有任何关系。事实上,从表面上看,两者似乎是完全是相反的:一个是象征着压抑和人为分裂的柏林墙的倒塌,而另一个是看似坚不可摧的并令人安心的金融资本主义机构的倒塌。

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