¿Por qué Esperar al Euro?

Aunque la expansión hacia el este de la Unión Europea (UE) todavía no sucede, el debate ya se está desviando a preguntar qué vendrá después: ¿Cuándo adoptarán el Euro los predominantemente postcomunistas nuevos miembros? Asumiendo que cumplen con las condiciones del Tratado de Maastricht acerca de la UEM y que no son injustamente sujetos a criterios más astringentes, el tema central es si los nuevos miembros se beneficiarán más esperando o si deben buscar una entrada temprana.

Al principio debe enfatizarse que cuando un país busca una entrada temprana a la UEM asume un programa fiscal y estructural más ambicioso que no sería necesario si la membresía en la UEM fuese retrasada. La entrada temprana, de otra manera, sería un gesto sin significado.

Creo que la adopción temprana del Euro no es sólo posible, sino preferible al retraso. Con "adopción temprana" me refiero al periodo permisible más corto posible -dos años- después de que un nuevo miembro subordina su política monetaria a los controles fiscales y monetarios del mecanismo de tasa de cambio (ERM2). Asumiendo que se entre a ambos, la UE y el ERM2, en 2004, los nuevos miembros deberían buscar entrar a la zona del Euro alrededor de 2006.

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