¿Es Irak el próximo Afganistán?

Al comienzo de la guerra encabezada por EEUU en Irak, dos visiones contrapuestas daban forma a las predicciones acerca de los resultados. La primera planteaba que el derrocamiento del régimen de Saddam Hussein daría comienzo a una era democrática en Irak que serviría como modelo y catalizador para un cambio democrático en toda la región.

Tachada por sus detractores como una nueva "teoría del dominó", esta visión presentaba la intervención en Irak como algo similar al papel de los Estados Unidos en el Japón de postguerra. Contra el optimismo del "escenario japonés", los pesimistas argumentaban que era más probable un "escenario somalí". Su razonamiento se basaba en la naturaleza tribal, sectaria y multiétnica de Irak, que, en ausencia de una dictadura, supuestamente haría que Irak entrara en un colapso y se convirtiera en un "estado fallido", con un aumento rampante del poder de los señores de la guerra, los feudos étnicos y religiosos, y la acogida a las organizaciones terroristas.

Pero la principal pregunta ahora es si Irak quedará se desplazará a la deriva a un punto entre estos dos escenarios, cada vez más pareciéndose a Afganistán. Este "escenario afgano" implica un estado débil con un poder nominal sobre feudos que en la práctica con autónomos y que son líderados por caudillos con representación en el gobierno central.

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