Станет ли Ирак вторым Афганистаном?

В начале войны США с Ираком предсказывали два вероятных её исхода. Первый - свержение режима Саддама Хусейна ознаменует начало в Ираке демократической эры и станет образцом и катализатором демократических изменений в регионе.

Осмеянная критиками как "теория домино", данная точка зрения сравнивала вторжение в Ирак с действиями США в послевоенной Японии. В ответ на оптимизм "японского сценария" пессимисты говорили, что более вероятен "сценарий Сомали". Они знали о племенной, разбитой на несколько религиозных течений и этнических групп природе Ирака, который, в отсутствии диктатуры, мог бы скатиться к "развалу" с неуёмным вождизмом, этнической и религиозной враждой и поддержкой терроризма.

Главный вопрос сегодня - сможет ли Ирак удержаться в берегах этих двух сценариев, станет ли он вторым Афганистаном. Этот "афганский сценарий" подразумевает слабое государство с номинальной властью над достаточно независимыми феодалами, имеющими покровителей в центральном правительстве.

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