Ist der Irak das nächste Afghanistan?

Zu Beginn des Irak-Kriegs unter US-Führung bildeten sich zwei konkurrierende Voraussagen über sein Ergebnis. Die erste behauptete, der Sturz des Saddam Hussein Regimes dürfte im Irak eine Ära der Demokratie einleiten, die als Modell und Katalysator für die demokratische Umgestaltung der Region dienen würde.

Von den Kritikern als neue "Domino-Theorie" verspottet stellte diese Ansicht die Intervention in den Irak als etwas Ähnliches wie die Rolle dar, die Amerika nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg in Japan eingenommen hat. Gegen den Optimismus dieses "Japan-Szenarios" behaupteten die Pessimisten, dass ein "Somalia-Szenario" wahrscheinlicher wäre. Sie stützten ihre Behauptung auf die Stammes-, Konfessions- und multiethnische Natur des Irak, die ohne Diktatur vermutlich im Irak den Zusammenbruch in einen "misslungenen Staat" mit wucherndem Kriegsherrenunwesen, ethnische und religiöse Fehden und Unterschlupf für terroristische Organisationen auslösen würde.

Doch ist jetzt die Hauptfrage, ob der Irak irgendwo zwischen diesen beiden Szenarien entlang triften wird, um zunehmend Afghanistan ähnlicher zu werden. Dieses "afghanische Szenario" beinhaltet einen schwachen Staat mit nomineller Macht über tatsächlich autonome Stammestümer, die von starken Männern als ihren Repräsentanten in der Staatsregierung geführt werden.

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