¿El oro a 10.000 dólares?

SAN FRANCISCO – Nunca ha resultado fácil sostener una conversación racional sobre el valor del oro. Últimamente, con los precios del oro más de un 300% por encima de los de la década pasada, resulta más difícil que nunca. Apenas en el pasado mes de diciembre, mis colegas los economistas Martin Feldstein y Nouriel Roubini escribieron columnas de opinión cuestionando valientemente el sentimiento alcista del mercado, y señalando con criterio los riesgos del oro.

¿Y saben qué? Desde que aparecieron sus artículos, el precio del oro aumentó aún más. Los precios del oro incluso alcanzaron recientemente un récord de 1.300 dólares. En diciembre pasado, muchos analistas a favor del oro sostenían que el precio iba inevitablemente camino a los 2.000 dólares. Hoy, envalentonados por la apreciación continua, algunos están sugiriendo que el oro podría llegar incluso a superar esa cifra.

Un inversor en oro exitoso recientemente me explicó que los precios de las acciones perdieron vigor durante más de una década antes de que el índice Dow Jones atravesara la marca de 1.000 a principios de los años 1980. Desde entonces, el índice ha trepado por encima de 10.000. Ahora que el oro atravesó la barrera mágica de los 1.000 dólares, ¿por qué no puede aumentar diez veces más también?

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