Oro a quota 10,000?

SAN FRANCISCO – Non è mai stato facile avere una conversazione razionale sul valore dell’oro. Ultimamente poi, con il prezzo dell’oro cresciuto di più del 300% nel corso dell’ultimo decennio, è più difficile che mai. Lo scorso dicembre, gli economisti Martin Feldstein e Nouriel Roubini hanno entrambi scritto degli editoriali nei quali mettevano coraggiosamente in dubbio l’esuberanza del mercato, evidenziando con intelligenza i rischi legati all’oro.

Ma indovinate un po'? Da quando i loro articoli sono apparsi, il prezzo dell’oro è aumentato ulteriormente, arrivando recentemente a toccare il valore record di 1.300 dollari. Lo scorso dicembre, molti fanatici dell’oro sostenevano che il suo prezzo era inevitabilmente destinato a raggiungere i 2000 dollari. Adesso, rinfrancati dalla sua continua ascesa, alcuni arrivano a suggerire che il valore dell’oro potrebbe arrivare ancora più in alto.

Un investitore di successo che ha puntato sull’oro mi ha recentemente spiegato che anche i valori azionari sono rimasti pressoché stazionari per più di un decennio, finché l’indice Dow Jones non ha varcato la soglia dei 1.000 punti agli inizi degli anni ’80. A quel punto, l’indice è schizzato fino ad oltrepassare i 10.000 punti. Ora che l’oro ha attraversato la fatidica barriera dei 1.000 dollari, perché non dovrebbe poter decuplicare anch’esso?

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