Steigt Gold auf 10.000 Dollar?

SAN FRANCISCO – Es war noch nie leicht, ein rationales Gespräch über den Wert von Gold zu führen. In letzter Zeit allerdings ist dies schwieriger denn je, ist doch der Goldpreis im letzten Jahrzehnt um über 300 Prozent angestiegen. Erst letzten Dezember verfassten meine Kollegen Martin Feldstein und Nouriel Roubini Kommentare, in denen sie mutig die vorherrschende optimistische Marktstimmung hinterfragten und sehr überlegt auf die Risiken des Goldes  hinwiesen.

Und es kam, wie es kommen musste. Seit der Veröffentlichung ihrer Artikel ist der Goldpreis noch weiter gestiegen. Jüngst erreichte er sogar ein Rekordhoch von 1.300 Dollar. Im letzten Dezember argumentierten die Goldbugs, dass der Preis zweifellos in Richtung 2.000 Dollar gehen würde. Beflügelt aufgrund des anhaltenden Aufwärtstrends, meint man nun mancherorts, dass Gold sogar noch höher steigen könnte.

Ein erfolgreicher Gold-Investor erklärte mir vor kurzem, dass die Aktienkurse über ein Jahrzehnt dahingedümpelt waren, bevor der Dow Jones-Index in den frühen 1980er Jahren die Marke von 1.000 Punkten überschritt. Seit damals ist er auf über 10.000 Punkte gestiegen. Nun hat Gold die magische Grenze von 1.000 Dollar überschritten, warum sollte sich sein Wert daher nicht auch verzehnfachen?  

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