L’or à 10.000 dollars l’once ?

SAN FRANCISCO – Il n’a jamais été facile d’avoir une discussion rationnelle sur la valeur du métal jaune. Et aujourd’hui, alors que le cours de l’or a augmenté de 300 pour cent au cours de la dernière décennie, c’est plus difficile que jamais. En décembre dernier, mes collègues économistes Martin Feldstein et Nouriel Roubini ont chacun publié une tribune libre dans laquelle ils doutaient courageusement du marché haussier, soulignant de manière sensée les risques liés à l’or.

Mais devinez ce qui s’est passé ? Depuis la parution de leurs articles, le cours de l’or a encore grimpé, pour atteindre récemment un plus haut historique de 1300 dollars l’once. En décembre dernier, plusieurs investisseurs dans le métal jaune estimaient que l’once atteindrait inévitablement les 2000 dollars. Aujourd’hui, encouragés par son appréciation constante, certains suggèrent qu’il pourrait grimper encore.

Un particulier qui a investi avec succès dans le métal précieux m’a récemment expliqué que les cours de la Bourse avaient stagné pendant une décennie avant que l’indice Dow Jones passe la barre des 1000 points. Depuis lors, le Dow Jones a dépassé la barre des 10.000 points. Maintenant que l’or a dépassé le seuil symbolique des 1000 dollars l’once, sa valeur ne pourrait-elle pas être elle aussi multipliée par dix ?

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