We seem to be heading towards an economic downturn equivalent to the Great Depression of the 1930s. This isn't a secret. The synthesis below is derived from: Lawrence Summers, Nouriel Roubini, Simon Johnson, Niall Ferguson, Paul Krugman to name just a few. This crisis is not happening quickly. It's more of a slow-motion train wreck -- Greece's crisis started in 2009. But that leaves a puzzle -- why is the American stock market not reacting to obvious warning signs?
Greece is in very deep trouble. Spain (the Euro's fourth largest economy) just needed a $125 billion bank bailout. The weaker economies (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain) face severe credit crunches as local banks lose deposits (withdrawn because of credit concerns and fear of forced devaluations following a Euro exit).
Serious discussion is already taking place about the demise of the Euro, or even worse the break-up of the European common market -- in which case unemployment rates across Europe will exceed 20 percent. National incomes will decline sharply, resulting in large-scale corporate insolvencies, with the crisis spilling over into the U.S. and Asia.