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Angela’s Ashes

Nov 2, 2018

German Chancellor Angela Merkel's announcement that she will not seek another term signals the end of an era for both Germany and Europe. Debates about her legacy, however, will continue for some time to come.

In this Big Picture, Ashoka Mody notes that Merkel's long avoidance of controversial issues and bold policy interventions has finally caught up with her. Likewise, Philippe Legrain argues that, after 13 years in office, Merkel's exit from the stage is long overdue, and will allow for sorely needed EU and eurozone reforms.

But Yanis Varoufakis thinks that even Merkel's critics shouldn't celebrate her comeuppance, given that she and the rest of Europe are now at the mercy of US President Donald Trump's dangerous whims. And Marcel Fratzscher contends that Merkel's success in bridging social and political divides has transformed Germany into a more open country and society.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 8 Comments on this article

Pavlos Papageorgiou Nov 5, 2018

Angela Merkel was the first person in history to have European unity within her grasp. She decided to throw it all away for petty politics, household economics, and plain old cowardice.
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j. von Hettlingen Nov 5, 2018

What “tragedy” is Ashoka Mody talking about? Either Angela Merkel is too enigmatic, or she is too sophisticated for him to assess. The extraordinary thing is that, after 13 years in the chancellery critics still do not really know who she is. The author’s disingenuous editorial is nothing short of a summary of commentaries that are critical of Merkel, which he gleaned in a hurry and adopted without second thought. His opinion – if he has one – is biased. His binary mindset and Angela Merkel’s analytical thinking make an odd juxtaposition.
Philippe Legrain makes the impression that he prefers swaggering, might-is-right machismo to decency and political correctness. He makes no secret of his resentment towards Germany in general and his hostility towards Angela Merkel in particular, blaming the two for the mess in which the EU finds itself. Obviously his heart beats for Britain and France. He can not forgive Merkel for not coming to Theresa May’s resuce in the deadlocked Brexit negotiations, and for spurning Macron’s bold plans to reform the European project, which relies heavily on a “renewed” Franco-German partnership.
Yanis Varoufakis maintains that Angela Merkel’s “combination of unsustainable loans and hyper-austerity” that are still crushing Greece, his country, had proved her undoing. As the Greeks grappled with “permanent stagnation and humiliation,” she had not only alienated “Europeanist leftists” like him, but also enabled the rise of “anti-Europeanist xenophobes” who seize on the opportunity to dismantle the EU. That she is relinquishing power is no reason to “celebrate.” The author sees her “comeuppance” as Europe’s and the world’s “misfortune.” Perhaps he sees Merkel as the lesser of two evils, when the EU is besieged by the US under Trump and China under Xi Jinping.
Marcel Fratzscher believes Angela Merkel will be remembered in German history for her social rather than economic achievement, embracing multiculturalism, gender equality and tolerance, transforming the country into an “open society.” On her watch his country has become a global economic powerhouse, although her predecessor, Gerhard Schröder was the one who had laid the groundwork for growth. She had been criticised for increasing social spending on pensions and transfers, while failing to invest in the creaking infrastructure and the education system, or to forge tax reform to promote more wealth and income equality. Employment has risen, but low-paid workers have to struggle to make ends meet, despite booming economy.
Despite the many mistakes, Merkel’s civility and level-headedness represent all that the posturing populists in Hungary, Italy and the US, who challenge Europe’s unity, do not. Critics like Mody and Legrain do not appreciate her analytical, rational, non-partisan and ultimately technocratic style of leadership. Instead they focus on her failed policies, that they see, had actually precipitated the collapse of Europe’s political centre and helped populists emerge and make inroads. Despite billions of euros spent on family policies - like "childhood education and children’s rights" - that benefit women, who want to join the labour market, birth rate has not risen. The complex benefits and tax breaks had been largely ineffective and in some cases counterproductive.
Nevertheless Merkel has been a torch-bearer for liberal values, which need more figures like her. In volatile times she has served as the leader from a more stable era, recent enough that one still feels a sense of comfort. The day she goes, that era will just be a chapter in history not so easily erased from memory. Germany will be remembered as the most popular country on earth in 2013 and the most positively viewed country in 2014.
When the powerful craving for stability, maturity and dignity in global affairs sets in, the world will realise the vacancy she leaves behind, and that Europe is in no condition to supply a candidate to fill it, - not yet.
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Peter Schaeffer Nov 4, 2018

Merkel has not addressed the problems facing Germany. Indeed, she has made several of them worse. The four problems are competition from China, the economic failures of Europe and the Euro, external security, and mass immigration.

In the short and medium term, the rise of China (and more generally) Asia has been huge plus for Germany (and terrible for Southern Europe). China / Asia has been a huge buyer of Germany’s medium Tech exports (capital goods) and an ever expanding source of cheap consumer goods. What’s their not to like? Of course, these trends have been catastrophic for Southern Europe. Southern Europe concentrated on lower-tech consumer goods and has been devastated by Asian competition.

Has Germany responded to these trends by demanding (or even supporting) protection for Southern Europe? Not exactly. The German approach has been “we make money from global free trade and the rest of Europe can go to H…”. Germany has explicitly rejected the substance of solidarity, while endlessly exploiting the rhetoric of solidarity.

Of course, the world isn’t standing still. China / Asia will move inexorably upscale over the next few decades. China / Asia will (over time) be able to make the medium Tech capital goods Germany now exports. Of course, they will be able to make them at considerably lower cost than in Germany. Germany will lose its lucrative Asia markets and (worse) lose its global markets.

Has Merkel done anything to prepare Germany for the coming shifts in the global economy? No. In fairness to her, I don’t see any awareness of these issues anywhere in Germany. Germany is sleep-walking into disaster. Pathetic but true.

The second deep issue is the economic, political, and social failure of Europe / Euro. A Europe with a prosperous North and impoverished South cannot survive. Actually, it probably can survive. However, a Europe where Germany dictates terms to Club Med is doomed. Club Med will eventually rebel and revolt. When it (Club Med) revolts Germany will find that it has precious few allies. German arrogance has seen to that.

What has Merkel done about this? She has made it vastly worse. Her insistence on the Euro, ‘free trade’, public sector debt enforcement, and ‘no transfer union, no debt union’ is a catastrophe. In this case, there are plenty of Germans who foresee the dark future. Did/does Merkel listen to the voices of sanity? Not exactly. The clarion call of ‘ever deeper union’ has been her idée fixe.

The third critical issue is external security. Germany (and Europe) has abandoned the necessary commitment to arms that a sovereign nation must have. To state this bluntly German and Europe just aren’t spending enough on defense to hold their own against Russia and the rest of the world. Europe has resources (technology, people, and money) that utterly dwarf Russia. However, Europe has been conspicuously unwilling to use them. The European ‘strategy” has been to whine about Trump, rather than building the military machines Europe needs to defend itself.

What has Merkel done about this? Nothing would be a good summary. Of course, that isn’t exactly true. She has criticized Trump. Have other voices in Germany raised the alarm? Yes and Merkel has ignored them.

The fourth doomsday issue is migration. Merkel’s record has been a consummate disaster. Mass migration leading inexorably to mass crime leading to a mass cover-up. Of course, Germany has decades of experience with migration from MENA (Middle-East, North Africa). After many decades, MENA immigrants remain poorly assimilated, poorly educated, and hostile (in some cases) to Germany.

Back in 2005, Der Spiegel wrote an article “The Death of a Muslim Woman "The Whore Lived Like a German"”. It was the sad tale of the life and death of Hatin Surucu. What were her crimes? Dating (ethnic) German boys and wearing jeans. In 2010, a leading figure (Thilo Sarrazin) in the German SPD wrote a book (“Germany Abolishes Itself” – “Deutschland schafft sich ab”) describing Germany’s decades of failure with MENA immigration.

In spite of Germany’s long and bad history with MENA immigration, Merkel opened the flood gates in 2015. She still defends her debacle. The definition of insanity is “Doing the Same Thing Over and Over Again and Expecting Different Results”. By that definition Merkel is insane.

Overall, Merkel has been a disaster. A disaster for Germany, a disaster for Europe, and a disaster for the West. While Berlin has burned, she has devoted herself to splashing gasoline around.

She will not be missed.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Peter Schaeffer Nov 4, 2018

Merkel has not addressed the problems facing Germany. Indeed, she has made several over them worse. The four problems are competition from China, the economic failures of Europe, external security, and mass immigration.

In the short and medium term, the rise of China (and more generally) Asia has been huge plus for Germany (and terrible for Southern Europe). China / Asia has been a huge buyer of Germany’s medium Tech exports (capital good) and an ever expanding source of cheap consumer goods. What’s their not to like? Of course, these trends have been catastrophic for Southern Europe. Southern Europe concentrated on lower-tech consumer goods and has been devastates by Asian competition.

Has Germany responded to these trends by demand (or even supporting) protection for Southern Europe? Not exactly. The German approach has been “we make money from global free trade and the rest of Europe can go to h…”.

Of course, the world isn’t standing still. China / Asia will move inexorably upscale over the next few decades. China / Asia will (over time) be able to make the medium Tech capital goods Germany now exports. Of course, they will be able to make them at considerably lower cost than in Germany. Germany will loose its lucrative Asia markers and (worse) lose its global markets.

Has Merkel done anything to prepare Germany for the coming shifts in the global economy? No. In fairness to her, I don’t see any awareness of these issues anywhere in Germany. Germany is sleep-walking into disaster. Pathetic but true.

The second deep issue is the economic, political, and social failure of Europe / Euro. A Europe with a prosperous North and impoverished South cannot survive. Actually, it probably can survive. However, a Europe where Germany dictates terms to Club Med is doomed. Club Med will eventually rebel and revolt. When it (Club Med) revolts Germany will find that it has precious few allies. German arrogance has seen to that.

What has Merkel done about this? She has made it vastly worse. Her insistence on the Euro, ‘free trade’, public sector debt enforcement, and ‘no transfer union, no debt union’ is a catastrophe. In this case, there are plenty of Germans who foresee the dark future. Did/does Merkel listen to the voices of sanity? Not exactly. The clarion call of ‘ever deeper union’ has been her idée fixe.

The third critical issue is external security. Germany (and Europe) has abandoned the necessary commitment to arms that a sovereign nation must have. To state this bluntly German and Europe just aren’t spending enough on defense to hold their own against Russia and the rest of the world. Europe has resources (technology, people, and money) that utterly dwarf Russia. However, Europe has been conspicuously unwilling to use them. The European ‘strategy” has been to whine about Trump, rather than build the military machines Europe needs to defend itself.

What has Merkel done about this? Nothing would be a good summary. Of course, that isn’t exactly true. She has criticized Trump. Have other voices in Germany raised the alarm? Yes and Merkel has ignored them.

The fourth doomsday issue is migration. Merkel’s record has been a consummate disaster. Mass migration leading inexorably to mass crime leading to a mass cover-up. Of course, Germany has decades of experience with migration from MENA (Middle-East, North Africa). After many decades, MENA immigrants remain poorly assimilated, poorly educated, and hostile (in some cases) to Germany.

Back in 2005, Der Spiegel wrote an article “The Death of a Muslim Woman "The Whore Lived Like a German"”. It is the sad tale of the life and death of Hatin Surucu. What were her crimes? Dating (ethnic) German boys and wearing jeans. In 2010, a leading figure (Thilo Sarrazin) in the German SPD wrote a book (“Germany Abolishes Itself” – “Deutschland schafft sich ab”) wrotes a book describing Germany’s decades of failure with MENA immigration.

In spite of Germany’s long and bad history with MENA immigration, Merkel opened the flood gates in 2015. She still defends her debacle. The definition of insanity is “Doing the Same Thing Over and Over Again and Expecting Different Results”. By that definition Merkel is insane.

Overall, Merkel has been a disaster. A disaster for Germany, a disaster for Europe, and a disaster for the West. While Berlin has burned, she has devoted herself to splashing gasoline around.

She will not be missed.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Peter Schaeffer Nov 3, 2018

I suppose the women of Cologne might agree about "Auf Wiedersehen" for Merkel. However, their reasons might not be the same. Indeed, the failure to mention Cologne is telling.
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Henk Crop Nov 2, 2018

Europe faces some main challenges, which could need extra attention :

- The concept of the Federation ( the EUSSR) which Juncker has tried to force upon the EU has to be burried. The EU is a Union of independent states which only like to coordinate to achieve synergy. We do not need too much "leadership" from Berlin, Paris or Brussels. We have had enough of that over the past two centuries. We need a lean, pragmatic and democratic EU organisation, whereby the responsibilty of the members is basic but teamwork is encouraged.
= This could include direct contact between the National Parliaments and the EU Commission.
A new, small, Supervisary Board/Senate would then be needed to oversee the development of legislative procedures.
= This could include an extension of the function of the EU President with an EU management team. Two permanent members ( Germany, France) plus 4 members from smaller states on a rotating basis.

- Institutions have to be developed to make the Euro sustainable, without leading to a Federation.
This would also include a reduction of the huge debt ( Euro 2300 billion)
- The mass immigration has to be stopped effectivly. Illegals have to be returned. Refugees are to be placed in their cultural area.
- Further: Defense has to be strengthened, increase of the birthrate must be enhanced, the teaching of the English language should be encouraged. Of course climate change and energy remain to be on the priority list.
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