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The European Union’s New Triumvirate

The new messages emanating from Europe augur a reactivation of the post-1991 Weimar Triangle of France, Germany, and Poland. But it will no longer be just a regional or symbolic alliance; rather, these three countries will chart a new course toward European joint defense and sovereignty.

WARSAW – Recent speeches by French President Emmanuel Macron and Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski show just how much European thinking has changed since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. With German Chancellor Olaf Scholz endorsing Macron’s basic message, a more dynamic, coherent foreign policy for the European Union may be at hand.

Macron himself has come a long way. Back in 2019, he famously warned that NATO was becoming “brain dead” and called for greater strategic autonomy for Europe, even openly contesting US policies (and not just those of the Trump administration). While many thought he had blundered, his misdiagnosis had positive consequences. After all, even if NATO wasn’t brain dead, it was at least comatose, with most European members having disarmed since the Soviet Union’s collapse. Europe did need to learn to stand on its own two feet.

Since then, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (following its seizure of Ukrainian territory in 2014) has revived NATO and even led to the alliance’s enlargement, with the recent addition of Finland and Sweden. Moreover, Europe has begun to devise its own joint defense policy, buying weapons collectively, coordinating more efficiently, and matching the United States in its military and economic support for Ukraine.

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