Sunday, December 21, 2014

The New Global Economy

Ten years ago, rich countries dominated the world economy, accounting for two-thirds of global GDP. Since then, their share has fallen to just over half. In ten years, it could decline to a mere 40%, with emerging markets producing most global output.

The pace of this shift in economic power is unprecedented, and raises as many questions as it does hopes. What will happen after globalization and (often) good policies have enabled virtually all developing countries to catch up with their richer peers? And how will incumbent powers respond to the new players that economic convergence is bringing to the fore – and to their demands for a greater say in global economic governance?

At the same time, while the path of productivity growth is shaping the nature of today’s new global economy, its key drivers, innovation and trade, are under threat. Cash-rich but gun-shy Western companies are skimping on research and development; emerging economies are rethinking their reliance on export-led growth; and rich and poor governments alike are tempted to intervene to shape the future.

In this environment, readers need to understand the ideas that are shaping – or deforming – the world economy. In Project Syndicate’sweekly series The New Global Economy, readers will be taken to the heart of the matter by those who know their subjects best. The roster of past Project Syndicate’s economic commentators, many of whom (and others like them) will contribute commentaries in the future, includes:

·        senior officials, such as World Bank President Robert Zoellick, former Japanese Economy Minister Heizo Takenaka, Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble, and former British Prime Minister Gordon Brown;

·        business leaders and financiers, such as Deutsche Bank Chairman Josef Ackermann, Mexican telecoms tycoon Carlos Slim, Barclay’s Capital Chairman Hans-Joerg Rudloff, and financier George Soros;

·        economists, such asformer European Central Bank Chief Economist Otmar Issing, Nobel laureate Edmund S. Phelps, and Jim O’Neill,Chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management.

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