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Jorge G. Castañeda

The OAS will have to decide on March 24 whether to re-elect Chilean diplomat and politician José Miguel Insulza as its Secretary General. But the OAS is facing a broader challenge in the threatened departure of the so-called ALBA countries - Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Ecuador, Bolivia, and Paraguay - which are seeking to establish a rival organization.

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The Kremlin Temptation

Dominique Moisi Series: European Observer

2010-03-15

France’s recent sale of four powerful Mistral-class warships to Russia has evoked comparisons with Germany's go-it-alone strategy toward the Kremlin. Indeed, European leaders may ultimately be doing the same thing, but they are all doing it separately, as competitors vying for Russian favor rather than as partners within a supposedly tight-knit Union.... read

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Japan’s Financial Truant

Yuriko Koike Series: Asia Watch

2010-03-12

Last year, Japanese voters chose the Democratic Party of Japan in order to change the country. Instead, they have mostly seen the same old political scandals - and, worse, the same inaction on restoring the country's fiscal and economic health.... read

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China’s Bad Bet Against America

Joseph S. Nye Series: Of Might and Right

2010-03-10

Chinese-American relations are, once again, in a downswing, in part because of China's overconfidence in foreign policy, combined with insecurity in domestic affairs. This is represents a serious miscalculation on China's part, one that previous generations of Chinese leaders would never have allowed to occur.... read

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The Middle East’s Hair Trigger

Shlomo Ben-Ami Series: War and Peace

2010-03-03

Across the Middle East region, a fatalistic conventional wisdom is taking hold: war is unavoidable. With the days of Pax Americana in the region over, avoiding a regional explosion will require mobilizing the major international actors that favor diplomatic solutions for the Arab-Israeli conflict and for Iran’s quest to become a legitimate partner in a new regional system. ... read

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Greek Lessons for Europe

Joschka Fischer Series: The Rebel Realist

2010-02-26

Europe’s leaders – first and foremost Germany and France – must act quickly to defuse the Greeck crisis. Doing so will not come cheap, and therefore will entail substantial political risks, but, given a global economic environment that promises scant sustainable growth in the coming years, things could get very tough very soon for the euro zone if they do nothing.... read

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Is China Overplaying Its Hand?

Chris Patten Series: History in Motion

2010-02-19

Just last year, America’s financial difficulties and foreign entanglements, together with China’s economic ascent, led many to envisage the emergence of a sort of global condominium between the two countries. But, thanks to China's recent behavior on several issues, the idea of a G-2 that resolves major global problems has quickly lost plausibility.... read

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Iran at History’s Fork in the Road

Richard N. Haass Series: The Statesmen's Debate

2010-02-18

Hisotry tends to be punctuated by major developments – battles, assassinations, breakthroughs – that have consequences that are felt for years. Thirty-one years after the revolution that ousted the Shah and brought Islamic rule to Iran, we are at one of those turning points.... read

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The Final Decline of the West

Dominique Moisi Series: European Observer

2010-02-15

By mid-century, the Western world is expected to represent only 12% of the world’s population and only around 30% of global output, down from 68% in 1950. We are entering a new historical cycle, in which there will be proportionally fewer Westerners, more Africans and Middle Easterners, and – with greater relevance economically and strategically – many more Asians.... read

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The Suzuki Alliance

Yuriko Koike Series: Asia Watch

2010-02-12

The strategic interests of India and Japan are almost perfectly aligned, and each shares a desire to stabilize and preserve Asia’s balance of power. So it is no surprise that Japan is pushing to develop closer economic and strategic ties – an effort pioneered by key Japanese companies, particularly Suzuki. ... read

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How to Undermine an Alliance

Yuriko Koike Series: Asia Watch

2010-01-13

2010 marks the 50th anniversary of the signing of the Japan-United States Security Treaty. But, instead of celebrating an agreement that has helped stabilize East Asia for a half-century, the treaty is now at serious risk, as much from Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama's indecision as from his government's deep strains of anti-Americanism.... read

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Learning from the Cold War

Richard N. Haass Series: The Statesmen's Debate

2009-11-18

The Cold War was won as a result of military "containment" of Soviet expansion, the Soviet bloc's own internal weaknesses, and efforts to provoke a crisis of confidence among communist leaders. The same combination of factors should be considered when confronting regimes like those in Iran and North Korea.... read

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Obama’s Hardest Choices Lie Ahead

Shlomo Ben-Ami Series: War and Peace

2009-04-28

It was only natural that Barack Obama, whose election was one of the most revolutionary events in American history, should fill his first 100 days in office with a breathtaking, all-embracing agenda. But, as far as his foreign policy is concerned, the real test of his strategy of dialogue and cooperation will come only when it fails, and tough choices will have to be made.... read

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The Bigger Issue in Sudan

Shlomo Ben-Ami Series: War and Peace

2009-04-03

The most immediate consequence of the International Criminal Court's decision last month to issue an arrest warrant for Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir was the expulsion of most aid agencies from the country's Darfur region. But the more vital issue is to build international support for a strategy to implement fully the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement for Sudan.... read

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The Revolution Reborn

Jorge G. Castañeda Series: The Statesmen's Debate

2009-03-18

In El Salvador, for the first time ever in Latin America, a former guerilla organization has achieved its aims through the ballot box. For the FMLN's leaders, unlike even Nicaragua's Sandinistas, remain largely allied with the region's "revolutionary" left, with no moderate faction to balance them.... read

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Networked Leaders

Joseph S. Nye Series: Of Might and Right

2009-03-10

Former President George W. Bush called himself “the decider,” but leadership today - in business no less than in politics - is more collaborative and integrative than that implies. By contrast, Barack Obama understands the networked dimension of leadership and the importance of the soft power of attraction, continuing to use the Internet to reach out to citizens.... read

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The End of the Two-State Solution?

Joschka Fischer Series: The Rebel Realist

2009-01-23

Trying to extricate Israel and the Palestinians from the strategic dead-end they have maneuvered themselves into will be possible only from outside. If an imposed solution fails, the entire region will begin to slip into a dangerous confrontation – one that will not be limited to Israelis and Palestinians.... read

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The Obama Surprise

Richard N. Haass Series: The Statesmen's Debate

2009-01-19

Now that George W. Bush is gone, other countries will find that genuine multilateralism requires their willingness and ability to commit resources to deal with pressing challenges. Obama is likely to be more diplomatic than Bush, but he is also likely to be more demanding.... read

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What to Expect From the 44th President

Richard N. Haass Series: The Statesmen's Debate

2008-10-17

Much attention is focused on foreign policy differences between John McCain and Barack Obama. But there are also key similarities between them, in part because some of their disagreements are not as pronounced as they seem, and in part because the constraints that the next US president will face are certain to limit what either man could do in office.... read

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Who Wants Cold War II?	Shlomo Ben-Ami
A new Cold War between the US and Russia is in nobody's interest. after all, America's global influence is dwindling, Europe is dependent on Russian energy supplies, and Russia itself continues to be burdened by the same problems that led to the collapse of the Soviet Union.... read

Is America an Empire?

Joseph S. Nye Series: Of Might and Right

2004-01-26

Three decades ago, the radical left used the term "American empire" as an epithet. Now that same term has come out of the closet: analysts on both the left and right now use it to explain - if not guide - American foreign policy.... read

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The Wrong Way to Think About Oil

Joseph S. Nye Series: Of Might and Right

2006-02-17

In his recent State of the Union address, President George W. Bush declared, “America is addicted to oil.” He announced a program of energy research that would reduce American oil imports from the Middle East by 75% over the next two decades. But even if his program succeeds, it will not do much to increase America’s energy security. The United States gets only a fifth of its oil from the Persian Gulf.... read

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Rethinking Sovereignty

Richard N. Haass Series: The Statesmen's Debate

2006-02-14

For 350 years, sovereignty – the notion that states are the central actors on the world stage and that governments are essentially free to do what they want within their own territory but not within the territory of other states – has provided the organizing principle of international relations. The time has come to rethink this notion.... read

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Living on a Volcano

Michel Rocard Series: The Statesmen's Debate

2005-11-15

As I write this, violent clashes with the police have been going on for nearly two weeks in the suburbs of Paris and other French cities, with cars being set on fire at a rate of nearly 1,000 per night. Why is this happening? How far can it go?... read

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Cold War Lessons for George W. Bush

Joseph S. Nye Series: Of Might and Right

2005-10-18

President Bush recently drew an analogy between the current struggle against violent jihadi terrorism and the Cold War. He is right in one respect: waves of terrorism tend to be generational. Unfortunately, like the Cold War, the current “war on terror” is likely to be a matter of decades, not years.... read

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The Allure of Asia

Joseph S. Nye Series: Of Might and Right

2005-11-14

President Bush is in Asia to attend the Asian Pacific Economic Council in China, but he should pay attention to another Asian summit to which he was not invited. In December, Malaysia will host an East Asian meeting that deliberately excludes the United States. According to many close observers, America’s attractiveness is declining in the region where the allure, or “soft power,” of others has increased. ... read

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The Sleeping Volcano of Global Finance

Michel Rocard Series: The Statesmen's Debate

2005-08-12

The rejection of the European Union’s Constitutional Treaty by French and Dutch voters was, according to all evidence, more a rejection of unregulated globalization than it was a rejection of Europe. The general instability of social relations – most importantly, but not only, of employment – is slowly becoming intolerable for a growing part of the population in many developed countries, not just in Europe. And there cannot be a stable economic order – at least not in democratic countries – if electorates reject its underpinnings.... read

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Iran: Last Exit for Diplomacy

Joschka Fischer Series: The Rebel Realist

2006-05-24

The Iran crisis is moving fast in an alarming direction. There can no longer be any reasonable doubt that Iran’s ambition is to obtain nuclear weapons capability. However, at the heart of the issue lies the Iranian regime’s aspiration to become a hegemonic Islamic and regional power and thereby position itself at eye level with the world’s most powerful nations. It is precisely this ambition that sets Iran apart from North Korea: whereas North Korea seeks nuclear weapons capability in order to entrench its own isolation, Iran is aiming for regional dominance and more.... read

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The End of the Russia-China Debate

Dominique Moisi Series: European Observer

2005-12-14

Ten years ago, comparing the reform processes in China and Russia was an intellectual fashion. Was it preferable to start with economics – try and get rich, quick, but don’t rock the boat politically – in the manner of the Chinese? Or was it better to start with politics – recover liberty and prosperity may follow – which seemed to be Russia’s path under Mikhail Gorbachev and Boris Yeltsin? ... read

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America’s Misguided Immigration Debate	Jorge G. Castañeda
A debate on immigration is beginning in the United States Senate, which will take up several proposals. These include a hateful bill – which the House of Representatives has already approved – that provides for the construction of a wall along the US-Mexican border and makes unauthorized entry into the US a felony.... read
Mikhail Gorbachev and the End of the Cold War	Joseph S. Nye
Earlier this month, Mikhail Gorbachev celebrated his 75th birthday with a concert and conference at his foundation in Moscow. Unfortunately, he is not popular with the Russian people, who blame him for the loss of Soviet power. But, as Gorbachev has replied to those who shout abuse at him, “Remember, I am the one who gave you the right to shout.”... read

FEATURED COMMENTARY

Europe’s Ukrainian Linchpin
Joschka Fischer
Series: The Rebel Realist

Frustrated by immobilism and corruption, Europe has turned away from Ukraine – a stance that could turn out to be a significant mistake. After all, Europe and Russia meet in Ukraine, and its fate will not only be a crucial factor in defining European security, but will also play a substantial role in future European-Russian relations.

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OBSERVERS

MOST RECENT COMMENTARY - OBSERVERS

Jorge G. Castañeda

The Kremlin Temptation

Japan’s Financial Truant

China’s Bad Bet Against America

The Middle East’s Hair Trigger

Greek Lessons for Europe

Is China Overplaying Its Hand?

Iran at History’s Fork in the Road

The Final Decline of the West

The Suzuki Alliance

How to Undermine an Alliance

Learning from the Cold War

Obama’s Hardest Choices Lie Ahead

The Bigger Issue in Sudan

The Revolution Reborn

Networked Leaders

The End of the Two-State Solution?

The Obama Surprise

What to Expect From the 44th President

Is America an Empire?

The Wrong Way to Think About Oil

Rethinking Sovereignty

Living on a Volcano

Cold War Lessons for George W. Bush

The Allure of Asia

The Sleeping Volcano of Global Finance

Iran: Last Exit for Diplomacy

The End of the Russia-China Debate

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