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Nouriel Roubini

Unsustainable private-debt problems must be resolved by defaults, debt reductions, and conversion of debt into equity. If, instead, private debts continue to be excessively socialized, the advanced economies will face a grim future: serious sustainability problems with their public, private, and foreign debt, together with crippled prospects for economic growth.

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RECENT COMMENTARIES

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The Kremlin Temptation

Dominique Moisi Series: European Observer

2010-03-15

France’s recent sale of four powerful Mistral-class warships to Russia has evoked comparisons with Germany's go-it-alone strategy toward the Kremlin. Indeed, European leaders may ultimately be doing the same thing, but they are all doing it separately, as competitors vying for Russian favor rather than as partners within a supposedly tight-knit Union.... read

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Japan’s Financial Truant

Yuriko Koike Series: Asia Watch

2010-03-12

Last year, Japanese voters chose the Democratic Party of Japan in order to change the country. Instead, they have mostly seen the same old political scandals - and, worse, the same inaction on restoring the country's fiscal and economic health.... read

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A Crisis of Understanding

Robert J. Shiller Series: Finance in the 21st Century

2010-03-12

Few economists predicted the current economic crisis, and there is little agreement among them about its ultimate causes. So, not surprisingly, they are not in a good position to forecast how quickly it will end, either.... read

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Cars, Bombs, and Climate Change

Bjørn Lomborg Series: Global Warning

2010-03-12

Why are we willing to calculate costs and benefits when it comes to addressing traffic safety and terrorism, but not when devising policies to deal with climate change? A constructive dialogue about the smartest policy responses to global warming requires replacing our fixation on far-fetched, Armageddon scenarios with realism about the true costs of confronting this challenge.... read

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The End of an Era in Finance

Dani Rodrik Series: Roads to Prosperity

2010-03-11

On February 19, the IMF published a policy note that reversed its long-held position on capital controls and effectively ended the era of border-free global finance. Taxes and other restrictions on capital inflows, the IMF’s economists wrote, can be helpful, and they constitute a “legitimate part” of policymakers’ toolkit.... read

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China’s Bad Bet Against America

Joseph S. Nye Series: Of Might and Right

2010-03-10

Chinese-American relations are, once again, in a downswing, in part because of China's overconfidence in foreign policy, combined with insecurity in domestic affairs. This is represents a serious miscalculation on China's part, one that previous generations of Chinese leaders would never have allowed to occur.... read

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The Dutch Retreat

Ian Buruma Series: Crossing Cultures

2010-03-08

The Netherlands' recent decision to withdraw its forces from NATO operations in Afghanistan reflects more than mere domestic frustration that no partner country was willing to relieve Dutch troops, as promised. A military alliance without a clear common enemy, or a clear goal, becomes almost impossible to maintain. ... read

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Free Tilly – and all Circus Animals

Peter Singer Series: The Ethics of Life

2010-03-08

Last month, at the Sea World amusement park in Florida, a whale grabbed a trainer, pulled her underwater, and thrashed about with her until she was dead. The death is a tragedy, but there is no excuse for keeping wild animals in amusement parks or circuses.... read

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The Dangers of Deficit Reduction

Joseph E. Stiglitz Series: Unconventional Economic Wisdom

2010-03-05

Even with large deficits, economic growth in the US and Europe is anemic, and forecasts of private-sector growth suggest that in the absence of continued government support, there is risk of continued stagnation – of growth too weak to return unemployment to normal levels. if these forecasts are right, a premature “exit” from deficit spending is not worth the risk. ... read

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Europe’s Ukrainian Linchpin

Joschka Fischer Series: The Rebel Realist

2010-02-02

Frustrated by immobilism and corruption, Europe has turned away from Ukraine – a stance that could turn out to be a significant mistake. After all, Europe and Russia meet in Ukraine, and its fate will not only be a crucial factor in defining European security, but will also play a substantial role in future European-Russian relations.... read

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Avatar and Empire

Naomi Wolf Series: The Next Wave

2010-01-29

James Cameron’s film Avatar is notable for two revealing themes: the raw, guilty template of the American unconscious in the context of the “war on terror” and late-stage corporate imperialism, and the film's very critical portrayal of America – for the first time ever in a Hollywood blockbuster – from the point of view of the rest of the world.... read

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Reconstructing Haiti

Jeffrey D. Sachs Series: Economics and Justice

2010-01-25

Rebuilding Haiti will cost perhaps $10-$20 billion, and will require much of the coming decade. Getting started now will save countless lives and prevent a further tragic downward spiral of a society that stands at the very brink of survival.... read

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Obamanomics: Year One and Beyond

Barry Eichengreen Series: The Next Financial Order

2010-01-22

The great strength of Barack Obama's economic policies - in health care, fiscal stimulus, and stabilizing the banking system - has been not to allow the perfect to become the enemy of the good. But, with the time for crisis management coming to a close, he now needs to aim higher if he is to fulfill his promise of a more economically just society.... read

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Off With Their Heads

Simon Johnson Series: The Hopeful Science

2010-01-21

WASHINGTON, DC – At last the Obama administration seems to be contemplating a decisive move against America’s banking elite. Following the recent electoral setback in Massachusetts the proposals laid down by former Federal Reserve chairman, Paul Volcker, to reduce the market power of the banks, are being dusted off. ... read

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The Google that Can Say No

Esther Dyson Series: Net World

2010-01-18

Google's threat to leave China probably stems from a combination of – or rather, a changing calculus around – its business interests and its values. The censorship issue has long grated at the company, but so have the constraints on any foreign company's ability to make serious long-term profits.... read

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How to Undermine an Alliance

Yuriko Koike Series: Asia Watch

2010-01-13

2010 marks the 50th anniversary of the signing of the Japan-United States Security Treaty. But, instead of celebrating an agreement that has helped stabilize East Asia for a half-century, the treaty is now at serious risk, as much from Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama's indecision as from his government's deep strains of anti-Americanism.... read

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Investment Strategy after the Crisis

Michael Spence Series: The New Wealth of Nations

2009-12-21

Investors have been hit hard by the current crisis, and lessons are being learned and strategies revised. But the central lesson for investors is that they should not assume that all times are “normal” times, and that risks to the system as a whole are abnormal.... read

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Obama Undermines the UN Climate Process

Jeffrey D. Sachs Series: Economics and Justice

2009-12-20

Two years of climate change negotiations have now ended in a farce in Copenhagen. Barack Obama’s decision to declare a phony negotiating victory amounts to a declaration that rich countries will do what they want and must no longer listen to the “pesky” concerns of many smaller and poorer countries.... read

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Mountains and Minarets	Ian Buruma
To attribute the Swiss vote to ban minarets to “Islamophobia” is perhaps to miss the point. If the Swiss and other Europeans – many of whom would vote for a similar ban if given the chance – were self-assured about their own identities, their Muslim fellow-citizens would not strike such fear in their hearts.... read
The Limits of Dubai	Kenneth Rogoff
Global investors are in a giant huff over Dubai’s decision to allow its flagship private company Dubai World to seek a six-month standstill (implying at least partial default) on payments on some $26 billion in debt. But what really upset investors was the realization that, in an over-leveraged world, some day untenable debt guarantees will have to be withdrawn.... read

Corporate Liability for Human Rights

Joseph E. Stiglitz Series: Unconventional Economic Wisdom

2003-11-06

Wittingly or unwittingly, individuals do things that injure other individuals. For society to function, it must provide individuals with incentives not to do so, through rewards and punishments, regulations and fines. By polluting the air, one harms anyone who breathes. The legal system has an important role here. If I injure you, you should be able to sue me.... read