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Michael Spence

It is a difficult moment to be optimistic about the future of the world economy. A policy agenda in the US that is overloaded, largely domestically focused, and partially paralyzed will mean a lack of attention to global issues that require cooperation and compromise, including the international dimensions of financial reform.

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RECENT COMMENTARIES

FEATURED COMMENTARIES

Can Greece Avoid the Lion?

Kenneth Rogoff Series: The Unbound Economy

2010-02-03

Even as the EU and the IMF lay the groundwork for a giant first-round bailout, debate is swirling about whether Greece can avoid sovereign default. The problem is not only the numbers, but also credibility: thanks to decades of low investment in statistical capacity, no one trusts the Greek government’s figures, and Greece’s default history hardly inspires confidence.... read

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Europe’s Ukrainian Linchpin

Joschka Fischer Series: The Rebel Realist

2010-02-02

Frustrated by immobilism and corruption, Europe has turned away from Ukraine – a stance that could turn out to be a significant mistake. After all, Europe and Russia meet in Ukraine, and its fate will not only be a crucial factor in defining European security, but will also play a substantial role in future European-Russian relations.... read

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The Roots of China’s Rapid Recovery

Fan Gang Series: Dragonomics

2010-01-31

For much of the world, China’s ability to shrug off the global financial crisis and maintain a strong growth trajectory in 2010 and 2011 seems too easy. But, while aggressive stimulus certainly helped, China's real salvation was cautious macroeconomic management well before the crisis hit.... read

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Avatar and Empire

Naomi Wolf Series: The Next Wave

2010-01-29

James Cameron’s film Avatar is notable for two revealing themes: the raw, guilty template of the American unconscious in the context of the “war on terror” and late-stage corporate imperialism, and the film's very critical portrayal of America – for the first time ever in a Hollywood blockbuster – from the point of view of the rest of the world.... read

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Back to the Future in Finance

Harold James Series: Capitalism Then and Now

2010-01-27

While former US Fed Chairman Paul Volcker provided the central inspiration for Barack Obama’s recent proposal for overhauling banking, he has also been a prominent critic of the dangers of currency volatility. Returning to fixed exchange rates would run counter to almost every argument of modern economics, but, at a moment when we are looking to the past for financial solutions, it is no longer unthinkable.... read

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America’s Employment Dilemma

J. Bradford DeLong Series: Anatomy of the Global Economy

2010-01-27

Some countries – China, for example – implemented job-creation policies a year ago that relied on boosting demand for goods and services, and are now reaping the benefits in higher employment. Other countries, like the US, did not, and now face the need to fight unemployment directly, through government job programs or tax credits to businesses that hire new workers.... read

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The Unbearable Lightness of Change

Shlomo Ben-Ami Series: War and Peace

2010-01-27

Barack Obama’s first year in office has been a sobering exercise in the limits of presidential power. It also carries lessons about how the resilient and impersonal forces of history can constrain any leader’s drive for change. ... read

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Reconstructing Haiti

Jeffrey D. Sachs Series: Economics and Justice

2010-01-25

Rebuilding Haiti will cost perhaps $10-$20 billion, and will require much of the coming decade. Getting started now will save countless lives and prevent a further tragic downward spiral of a society that stands at the very brink of survival.... read

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America’s Growth in the Decade Ahead

Martin Feldstein Series: The Magic of the Market

2010-01-25

Although the strength of the US economy in 2010 is still uncertain, it is important to look ahead to its likely performance in the coming decade. Adding up all the key components of GDP, annual economic growth is likely to be about 1.9%, or roughly the same as the average rate over the past ten years.... read

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Avatar and Empire

Naomi Wolf Series: The Next Wave

2010-01-29

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Reconstructing Haiti

Jeffrey D. Sachs Series: Economics and Justice

2010-01-25

Comments: 2 Recommended: 2 Read: 3178

Obamanomics: Year One and Beyond

Barry Eichengreen Series: The Next Financial Order

2010-01-22

The great strength of Barack Obama's economic policies - in health care, fiscal stimulus, and stabilizing the banking system - has been not to allow the perfect to become the enemy of the good. But, with the time for crisis management coming to a close, he now needs to aim higher if he is to fulfill his promise of a more economically just society.... read

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Off With Their Heads

Simon Johnson Series: The Hopeful Science

2010-01-21

WASHINGTON, DC – At last the Obama administration seems to be contemplating a decisive move against America’s banking elite. Following the recent electoral setback in Massachusetts the proposals laid down by former Federal Reserve chairman, Paul Volcker, to reduce the market power of the banks, are being dusted off. ... read

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The Google that Can Say No

Esther Dyson Series: Net World

2010-01-18

Google's threat to leave China probably stems from a combination of – or rather, a changing calculus around – its business interests and its values. The censorship issue has long grated at the company, but so have the constraints on any foreign company's ability to make serious long-term profits.... read

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How to Undermine an Alliance

Yuriko Koike Series: Asia Watch

2010-01-13

2010 marks the 50th anniversary of the signing of the Japan-United States Security Treaty. But, instead of celebrating an agreement that has helped stabilize East Asia for a half-century, the treaty is now at serious risk, as much from Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama's indecision as from his government's deep strains of anti-Americanism.... read

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Investment Strategy after the Crisis

Michael Spence Series: The New Wealth of Nations

2009-12-21

Investors have been hit hard by the current crisis, and lessons are being learned and strategies revised. But the central lesson for investors is that they should not assume that all times are “normal” times, and that risks to the system as a whole are abnormal.... read

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Obama Undermines the UN Climate Process

Jeffrey D. Sachs Series: Economics and Justice

2009-12-20

Two years of climate change negotiations have now ended in a farce in Copenhagen. Barack Obama’s decision to declare a phony negotiating victory amounts to a declaration that rich countries will do what they want and must no longer listen to the “pesky” concerns of many smaller and poorer countries.... read

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Mountains and Minarets

Ian Buruma Series: Crossing Cultures

2009-12-02

To attribute the Swiss vote to ban minarets to “Islamophobia” is perhaps to miss the point. If the Swiss and other Europeans – many of whom would vote for a similar ban if given the chance – were self-assured about their own identities, their Muslim fellow-citizens would not strike such fear in their hearts.... read

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The Limits of Dubai	Kenneth Rogoff
Global investors are in a giant huff over Dubai’s decision to allow its flagship private company Dubai World to seek a six-month standstill (implying at least partial default) on payments on some $26 billion in debt. But what really upset investors was the realization that, in an over-leveraged world, some day untenable debt guarantees will have to be withdrawn.... read
Learning from the Cold War	Richard N. Haass
The Cold War was won as a result of military "containment" of Soviet expansion, the Soviet bloc's own internal weaknesses, and efforts to provoke a crisis of confidence among communist leaders. The same combination of factors should be considered when confronting regimes like those in Iran and North Korea.... read

Corporate Liability for Human Rights

Joseph E. Stiglitz Series: Unconventional Economic Wisdom

2003-11-06

Wittingly or unwittingly, individuals do things that injure other individuals. For society to function, it must provide individuals with incentives not to do so, through rewards and punishments, regulations and fines. By polluting the air, one harms anyone who breathes. The legal system has an important role here. If I injure you, you should be able to sue me.... read