INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS

The Asia Portfolio

Stephen S. Roach

Is the “Asian” economic model of mercantilism and industrial policy, written off in the 1990’s, making a comeback? Will surging inflation in China help or undermine its leaders’ efforts to move away from export-led growth? Can India keep up with its giant neighbor to the North-East? Does Asia’s rise mean that the United States and Europe must inevitably decline? Are Indonesia, Vietnam, and Bangladesh the next big global players? Can Asia’s multinational family-business dynasties continue to prosper?

RECENT COMMENTARIES

FEATURED COMMENTARIES

China’s Connectivity Revolution

Stephen S. Roach Series: The Asia Portfolio

2012-01-26

Long the most fragmented nation on earth, a new connectivity is bringing China together as never before. Its Internet community is expanding at hyper speed, with profound implications for the Chinese economy, to say nothing of the country’s social norms and politics.... read

Comments: 3 Recommended: 0 Read: 12494

Why India is Riskier than China

Stephen S. Roach Series: The Asia Portfolio

2011-12-27

Today, fears are growing that China and India are about to be the next victims of the ongoing global economic carnage. Yet fears of hard landings for both economies are overblown, especially regarding China.... read

Comments: 5 Recommended: 3 Read: 38564

Another Asian Wake-Up Call

Stephen S. Roach Series: The Asia Portfolio

2011-11-28

For the second time in three years, global economic recovery is at risk, with the crisis in 2008, triggered by subprime crisis made in America, now followed by Europe's sovereign-debt crisis. The alarm bells should be ringing loud and clear across Asia – an export-led region that cannot afford to ignore repeated shocks to its two largest sources of external demand.... read

Comments: 1 Recommended: 0 Read: 14826

America's Other 87 Deficits

Stephen S. Roach Series: The Asia Portfolio

2011-10-28

The US runs a huge trade deficit with China, but it also runs deficits with 87 other countries. These deficits cannot be fixed by putting pressure on one of the bilateral components – but try telling that to America’s growing chorus of China bashers.... read

Comments: 7 Recommended: 1 Read: 22482

China’s Landing – Soft not Hard

Stephen S. Roach Series: The Asia Portfolio

2011-09-30

China’s economy is slowing, which is no surprise for an export-led economy that is dependent on faltering global demand. But China’s looming slowdown is likely to be both manageable and welcome, with fears of a hard landing overblown.... read

Comments: 4 Recommended: 0 Read: 22716

One Number Says it All

Stephen S. Roach Series: The Asia Portfolio

2011-08-25

The US economy – and the global economy – cannot get back on its feet without the American consumer. But never before in the post-World War II era has the American consumer been so weak for so long.... read

Comments: 11 Recommended: 0 Read: 32459

Read China’s Lips

Stephen S. Roach Series: The Asia Portfolio

2011-07-27

Chinese admire America’s economic dynamism, but they have lost confidence in the US government and its dysfunctional economic stewardship. The debate over the debt ceiling and the budget deficit is the last straw, and China's own shift away from export-led growth implies an end to its limitless demand for US government securities.... read

Comments: 10 Recommended: 0 Read: 44925

A Failed Global Recovery

Stephen S. Roach Series: The Asia Portfolio

2011-07-01

The global economy is in the midst of its second growth scare in less than two years. Get used to it: In an anemic post-crisis recovery, we are likely to face unpleasant surprises for years to come.... read

Comments: 4 Recommended: 0 Read: 26790

Ten Reasons Why China is Different

Stephen S. Roach Series: The Asia Portfolio

2011-05-27

NEW HAVEN – The China doubters are back in force. They seem to come in waves – every few years, or so. Yet, year in and year out, China has defied the naysayers and stayed the course, perpetuating the most spectacular development miracle of modern times. That seems likely to continue.... read

Comments: 15 Recommended: 2 Read: 70770

How Asia Copes with America’s Zombie Consumers	Stephen S. Roach
A post-crisis generation of “zombie consumers” in the United States is likely to hobble growth in global consumption for years to come. Asia now has no choice but to turn inward and draw support from its own 3.5 billion consumers.... read

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Read China’s Lips

Stephen S. Roach Series: The Asia Portfolio

2011-07-27

Comments: 10 Recommended: 0 Read: 44925

Aftershocks from Japan

Stephen S. Roach Series: The Asia Portfolio

2011-03-17

It is impossible at this point to gauge the full extent of the damage caused by the Japanese earthquake and tsunami with any degree of precision. But we can nonetheless begin to assess their potential impact on Japan, the rest of Asia, and other major economies around the world.... read

Comments: 5 Recommended: 2 Read: 44336

Asia’s Inflation Trap

Stephen S. Roach Series: The Asia Portfolio

2011-01-26

Asia has an increasingly alarming inflation problem, but its leaders are reluctant to address it decisively, worried that higher interest rates and stronger currencies will choke off export-led growth. But the longer they delay, the more wrenching the ultimate policy adjustment – and its consequences for growth and employment – will be.... read

Comments: 3 Recommended: 1 Read: 29681

China’s Turning Point

Stephen S. Roach Series: The Asia Portfolio

2011-02-24

China’s new five-year plan, the 12th since the revolution, plans to shift the economy from exports to domestic consumption. It is likely to prove the most monumental plan since Deng Xiaoping opened the economy 30 years ago, not only for China, but for Asia and the world as well.... read

Comments: 4 Recommended: 1 Read: 43319