THOUGHT LEADERS
The Unbound Economy
Kenneth Rogoff
What will drive recovery from the financial crisis of 2008? Will China eventually suffer a Japanese-style hard landing after decades of rapid growth? How long can Asia’s central banks be expected to prop up the dollar? Are we heading towards a world of multiple reserve currencies? Can India replicate China’s miracle? Will the euro zone expand and further transform Europe?
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Can Greece Avoid the Lion?
Kenneth Rogoff Series: The Unbound Economy 2010-02-03Even as the EU and the IMF lay the groundwork for a giant first-round bailout, debate is swirling about whether Greece can avoid sovereign default. The problem is not only the numbers, but also credibility: thanks to decades of low investment in statistical capacity, no one trusts the Greek government’s figures, and Greece’s default history hardly inspires confidence.... read Comments: 2 Recommended: 0 Read: 7818
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Grandmasters and Global Growth
Kenneth Rogoff Series: The Unbound Economy 2010-01-05
As the global economy limps into a new one in 2010, what will be the next big driver of global growth? Evidence from the world of chess suggests that it will be artificial intelligence, the uses of which will multiply, generating an economic impact on par with the emergence of India and China.... read Comments: 7 Recommended: 2 Read: 13586
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The Limits of Dubai
Kenneth Rogoff Series: The Unbound Economy 2009-12-01Global investors are in a giant huff over Dubai’s decision to allow its flagship private company Dubai World to seek a six-month standstill (implying at least partial default) on payments on some $26 billion in debt. But what really upset investors was the realization that, in an over-leveraged world, some day untenable debt guarantees will have to be withdrawn.... read Comments: 0 Recommended: 0 Read: 9403
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The Great Contraction of 2008-2009
Kenneth Rogoff Series: The Unbound Economy 2009-11-02
Many economic forecasters and market bulls believe that “the deeper the recession, the quicker the recovery,” which is true – up to a point: immediately after a normal recession, economies do, indeed, often grow much faster than usual over the ensuing twelve months. Unfortunately, the Great Recession of 2008-2009 is far from being a normal global recession.... read Comments: 2 Recommended: 2 Read: 11774
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China’s Dollar Problem
Kenneth Rogoff Series: The Unbound Economy 2009-10-02Chinese leaders recognize that their hoard of dollars is a problem, and they are right to worry: while a dollar crisis is not around the corner, it is certainly a huge risk over the next five to 10 years. But if China does not want to be left holding a $4 trillion bag, it must take the lead on scaling back global imbalances.... read Comments: 4 Recommended: 0 Read: 12233
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From Financial Crisis to Debt Crisis?
Kenneth Rogoff Series: The Unbound Economy 2009-09-02
How can policymakers be so certain that financial catastrophe won’t soon recur when they seemed to have no idea that a crisis would erupt in the first place? The answer is not very reassuring, because there is still a risk that the financial crisis is simply hibernating as it slowly morphs into a government debt crisis.... read Comments: 3 Recommended: 0 Read: 8633
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The Confidence Game
Kenneth Rogoff Series: The Unbound Economy 2009-08-03CAMBRIDGE – Next month marks the one year anniversary of the collapse of the venerable American investment bank, Lehman Brothers. The fall of Lehman marked the onset of a global recession and financial crisis the likes of which the world has not seen since the Great Depression of the 1930’s. After one year, trillions of dollars in public monies, and much soul searching in the world’s policy community, have we learned the right lessons? I fear not.... read Comments: 5 Recommended: 0 Read: 12253
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Will Europe’s Economies Regain Their Footing?
Kenneth Rogoff Series: The Unbound Economy 2009-07-02
Some commentators have savaged Europe’s policymakers for not orchestrating as aggressive a fiscal and monetary policy as their US counterparts have. But these critics seem to presume that Europe will come out of the crisis in far worse shape than the US, and it is too early to make that judgment.... read Comments: 0 Recommended: 0 Read: 7817
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Rebalancing the US-China Economic Relationship
Kenneth Rogoff Series: The Unbound Economy 2009-06-02As the global economy re-stabilizes, there is a growing danger that the US and China will slip back into their pre-crisis economic patterns, placing themselves and the rest of the world at risk. After all, it is human nature for complacency to set it, and the domestic politics of the US-China trade and financial relationship is deeply rooted. ... read Comments: 1 Recommended: 0 Read: 9912
| The “New Normal” for Growth | Kenneth Rogoff 
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