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Reinvigorating Egypt’s Economy

Mohamed A. El-Erian — Mon, 20 May 2013 17:00:30 +0000

While blaming the revolution is not a persuasive explanation for Egypt’s current economic woes, its appeal to many Egyptians is understandable. Over the last few months, their economic situation has gone from bad to worse.

The Flawed Origins of Expansionary Austerity

Jeffrey Frankel — Mon, 20 May 2013 15:20:13 +0000

As the case for austerity in a time of recession has weakened under the continuing onslaught of facts (most notably the recessions in Europe), advocates of fiscal stimulus have found the missteps of their opponents Carmen Reinhart, Ken Rogoff, and Niall Ferguson to be convenient weapons. But they are the wrong weapons.

Learning About Growth from Austerity

Michael Spence — Sat, 18 May 2013 09:00:00 +0000

All countries face complex choices with respect to the timing of austerity, perceived sovereign credit risk, and growth-oriented reforms. Today, advanced countries' previous emphasis on austerity may be giving way to a more balanced approach to boosting economic growth and employment.

Open-Access Economics

Barry Eichengreen — Fri, 17 May 2013 16:10:04 +0000

The brouhaha over Carmen Reinhart’s and Kenneth Rogoff’s article “Growth in a Time of Debt” has raised troubling questions not only about the efficacy of austerity, but also about the reliability of economic analysis. If a flawed study could appear in a prestigious working-paper series, why should anyone trust economic research?

The Resistible Fall of Europe: An Interview with George Soros

George Soros — Wed, 15 May 2013 08:15:03 +0000

The politics of the eurozone countries is European politics, and European politics is not serving these countries well. In an extended interview, George Soros explains why – and what should be done about it.

China’s E-Tail Revolution

Richard Cooper, et al. — Tue, 14 May 2013 09:00:00 +0000

Mass consumption in China and other emerging economies is coming of age in the Internet era. Given that industry structures are still developing in many of these countries, e-tail is set to shape not only the retail landscape, but also the manufacturing and financial services industries – and even the urban landscape itself.

Green Sovereign Wealth

Emmanuel Guerin — Mon, 13 May 2013 13:50:12 +0000

Despite the need for increased transparency in sovereign-wealth funds' operations, their value as long-term investors should not be underestimated. By shifting investment toward low-carbon, environmentally friendly infrastructure projects, SWFs could achieve their primary objective: the transfer of wealth to future generations.

Balancing the Technocrats

Kemal Derviş — Fri, 10 May 2013 09:00:00 +0000

Electoral cycles are such that monetary policy, banking, and many other areas must be regulated by those with professional competence and a much longer time horizon than that of politicians. But, if technocrats are allowed to determine long-term policy and set objectives, democracy itself is in serious jeopardy.

What Use Are Economists?

Dani Rodrik — Fri, 10 May 2013 09:00:00 +0000

Despite their protests to the contrary, Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff have been accused of providing scholarly cover for a set of policies for which there was, in fact, limited supporting evidence. One clear lesson is that we need better rules of engagement between economic researchers and policymakers.

The Mismeasure of Poverty

Jomo Kwame Sundaram — Fri, 10 May 2013 09:00:00 +0000

In 2012, outgoing World Bank President Robert Zoellick announced that the goal of halving global poverty relative to its 1990 level had been achieved in 2010 – five years ahead of schedule. But three problems – insufficient survey data, flawed survey execution, and faulty price conversions – undermine the accuracy of such estimates.

Debt Without Drowning

Paul De Grauwe — Thu, 09 May 2013 09:00:00 +0000

Given that dismantling the eurozone would trigger profound economic, social, and political upheaval throughout Europe, its leaders really have only one option: develop strategies aimed at bringing the eurozone closer to a fiscal union. They should begin with a debt-pooling scheme that satisfies three crucial requirements.

Europe’s Irrelevant Austerity Debate

Daniel Gros — Wed, 08 May 2013 09:00:00 +0000

The debate about austerity and the cost of high public-debt levels misses a key point: public debt owed to foreigners is different from debt owed to residents. And that distinction is particularly important in the context of the euro crisis, which the evidence confirms is not really about sovereign debt, but about foreign debt.

Soros versus Sinn: The German Question

George Soros, et al. — Mon, 06 May 2013 18:56:45 +0000

The ongoing euro crisis has been a source of increasingly heated debate worldwide. Now, George Soros and Hans-Werner Sinn, two regular Project Syndicate contributors and leading figures in the discussion, debate the cause of Europe’s crisis and how to overcome it.

The Problem with Poor Countries’ GDP

Bill Gates — Mon, 06 May 2013 09:00:00 +0000

Traditionally, one of the guiding factors for development aid has been per capita GDP – the value of goods and services produced by a country in a year divided by the country’s population. Yet GDP may be a very inaccurate indicator in the poorest countries, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Lives versus Profits

Joseph E. Stiglitz — Mon, 06 May 2013 09:00:00 +0000

The US Supreme Court recently began deliberations in a case that will determine whether human genes may be patented. But we already know that permitting gene patents results in inefficiencies – including monopoly profits and a failure to maximize the use of knowledge – that impede the pace of innovation.

The Japanese Experiment

Mohamed A. El-Erian — Fri, 03 May 2013 09:00:00 +0000

Weeks into Japan's paradigm shift in economic policy, optimism that the country may end a quarter-century of economic stagnation is balanced by fears that the authorities' new approach may make things worse. And, while debate naturally focuses on Japan's internal maneuvers, the tipping point may lie abroad.

The New Economy of Fealty

Harold James — Thu, 02 May 2013 09:00:00 +0000

Since the late twentieth century, most employment growth has come in services, particularly personal services – a pattern that looks like a reversal of a previous historical trend. Indeed, the element of personal dependence that many of the new service jobs imply is a throwback to the preindustrial world.

Controlling China’s Currency

Zhang Monan — Wed, 01 May 2013 09:00:00 +0000

China is stuck in a currency-creating cycle: GDP growth encourages investment, which boosts demand for capital, creates liquidity, and stimulates further GDP growth. The key to controlling the money supply is to prevent the government from becoming a second currency-creating body.

A New World’s New Development Bank

Nicholas Stern, et al. — Wed, 01 May 2013 09:00:00 +0000

The significance of the decision by the BRICS to create a new development bank that they will fund cannot be overemphasized. Emerging markets and developing countries are taking the future into their own hands – at a time when rich countries are muddling through their own self-inflicted problems.

A Fateful Mistake

Jean Pisani-Ferry — Wed, 01 May 2013 09:00:00 +0000

Adjustment fatigue is setting in, and governments risk losing support if they go much further in the effort to achieve fiscal consolidation. But the recent discrediting of the evidence on which hasty austerity has relied risks undermining the case for fiscal responsibility in the long run.