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The Sino-American Decade

Michael Spence — Fri, 24 May 2013 15:10:10 +0000

The next ten years will be characterized by major structural shifts in individual economies and a huge reconfiguration of the global economy as a whole. Above all, much depends on the two largest economies, China and the US, and their leadership in creating global public goods and maintaining a stable and open economic environment.

The HICCup Manifesto

Esther Dyson — Fri, 24 May 2013 12:20:13 +0000

It is hard to find anyone in health care who does not believe that spending $100 now on healthy behavior could yield more than $200 in lowered costs and improved outcomes. So why do individuals and communities not act on the basis of this knowledge?

America’s Blinders

Kishore Mahbubani — Fri, 24 May 2013 11:20:14 +0000

While most of the world is preparing for the end of the era of US global dominance, Americans are not even entertaining the possibility. Worse, public intellectuals, who are supposed to think the unthinkable, challenge accepted views, and prepare people for crucial developments, are shirking their responsibility.

Britain, Ireland, and Europe

David Miliband — Thu, 23 May 2013 20:13:06 +0000

British Prime Minister David Cameron is increasingly beholden to Conservative backbenchers who want to pull the UK out of the EU. On May 22, former British Foreign Secretary David Miliband delivered the Irish Business and Employers Confederation Annual Lecture, in which he defended continued EU membership.

Boards on Their Backs

Simon Johnson — Thu, 23 May 2013 09:00:00 +0000

The recent governance controversy at JPMorgan Chase has masked a much larger issue. Five years after the largest financial crisis in almost 80 years, one can count the number of properly qualified board members – across all megabanks – on the fingers of one hand.

Misreading the Global Economy

Ashoka Mody — Thu, 23 May 2013 09:00:00 +0000

Over the last three years, the IMF's economic forecasts have repeatedly proved to be overly optimistic. The problem is rooted in a misdiagnosis of the global economy's problems, including the impact of the eurozone crisis and slowing GDP growth in emerging economies.

Europe’s Clash of Generations

Gene Frieda — Thu, 23 May 2013 09:00:00 +0000

EU leaders are under pressure from a new generation of voters, for whom the original purpose of European integration – preventing war – holds little significance today. If EU leaders do not respond effectively, emerging political parties will seek to restore the protective national barriers that their predecessors demolished.

The Human City

Parag Khanna — Thu, 23 May 2013 09:00:00 +0000

The world is undergoing rapid urbanization, with the share of the population living in cities set to reach 60% by 2030. International institutions, governments, NGOs, and others must work together to make cities efficient, livable, and sustainable, using technology and public policy to support citizens’ welfare and aspirations.

Europe’s Lost Keynesians

Kenneth Rogoff — Thu, 23 May 2013 09:00:00 +0000

There is no magic Keynesian bullet for the eurozone’s woes, despite what many commentators and much of the public seem to believe. The eurozone’s difficulties stem from European financial and monetary integration having gotten too far ahead of actual political, fiscal, and banking union – not exactly a problem that Keynes tried to address.

Apocalypse Not Now

Tony Rothman — Wed, 22 May 2013 11:50:11 +0000

Apocalyptic prophecies – from Y2K to Mayan baktuns – divert resources and attention from more consequential scientific developments and debates. As journalism shifts toward sensationalism over empiricism, doomsday panics are becoming increasingly frequent – and increasingly damaging.

Overcoming East Asia’s Sovereignty Disputes

Charles Tannock — Wed, 22 May 2013 11:00:23 +0000

Disputes over territorial sovereignty are among the thorniest of all diplomatic disagreements. While the sovereignty disputes in the South and East China Seas involve seemingly non-negotiable claims, the resources surrounding the islands can nevertheless be shared, nurturing habits of closer regional cooperation in the process.

The Night-Watchman State’s Last Shift

Andrew Sheng, et al. — Wed, 22 May 2013 09:00:00 +0000

Too often, debate about the relationship between the state and the market casts them as opposing forces locked in a zero-sum struggle. But this simplistic approach quickly renders constructive discussion a casualty of the ideological battle between advocates of state and market capitalism.

The Debt-Growth Controversy

Michael Boskin — Wed, 22 May 2013 09:00:00 +0000

The recent controversy over errors in a 2010 paper by the economists Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff is a sad commentary on the politically toxic atmosphere surrounding fiscal policy in the US, Europe, and Japan. The Reinhart/Rogoff paper is just a small part of a large literature that shows high debt levels to be economically risky.

After Ahmadinejad

Mehdi Khalaji — Wed, 22 May 2013 09:00:00 +0000

The disqualification of two leading candidates for Iran's presidency sends a strong message from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei. Simply put, Khamenei is determined to avoid the type of friction that has characterized his relationships with previous presidents, particularly outgoing President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

China’s Interest-Rate Challenge

Pingfan Hong — Tue, 21 May 2013 15:50:07 +0000

China’s successful transformation from a middle-income country to a modern, high-income country will depend largely on the reforms that the government undertakes over the next decade. But, because the most pressing reform – interest-rate liberalization – carries both risks and rewards, officials should be prudent in their approach.

Managing Syria’s Meltdown

Christopher R. Hill — Tue, 21 May 2013 09:00:00 +0000

As Russian and American diplomats prepare for a Syrian peace conference, the Middle East is experiencing convulsions not seen since the Arab Spring two years ago. Indeed, in historical terms, the Syrian crisis, not the Arab Spring, will most likely be regarded as the region's seminal event in this decade.

The Invisible-Border War

Jaswant Singh — Tue, 21 May 2013 09:00:00 +0000

A half-century after the Sino-Indian War of 1962, the countries’ mutual border remains undefined and a constant source of friction – the latest episode being a three-week incursion by Chinese troops into Indian-held territory. Other Asian countries can no longer afford to ignore their own longstanding border disputes with China.

Africa’s French Roadblock

Sanou Mbaye — Tue, 21 May 2013 09:00:00 +0000

While some African countries now rank among the world's fastest-growing economies, others – including the 14 countries that form the franc zone – remain mired in poverty. To break out of it, franc-zone leaders must pursue complete emancipation from France, abandon the CFA franc, and build relations with China.

Austere Illusions

Robert Skidelsky — Tue, 21 May 2013 09:00:00 +0000

A government cannot liquidate its deficit if the source of its revenues, the national income, is diminishing. It is deficit reduction, not debt, that is profligate, because it implies wastage of available human and physical capital, quite apart from the resulting misery.

Reinvigorating Egypt’s Economy

Mohamed A. El-Erian — Mon, 20 May 2013 17:00:30 +0000

While blaming the revolution is not a persuasive explanation for Egypt’s current economic woes, its appeal to many Egyptians is understandable. Over the last few months, their economic situation has gone from bad to worse.