Recent comments by William Osterberg

• Open-Access Economics

  Having published empirical work in economics I can easily imagine how this might have happened. Problems in being able to replicate results in published papers are nothing new. What is needed is the recognition by professors in graduate schools, and at the journals, that efforts to replicate are worthy of recognition.
  Mandatory provision of data would be a good requirement for publication in journals and some journals might do this. However, often empirical work uses data that cannot be made public, such as official fx intervention.
  In addition, although it might not be the case with the work in question, it is not easy to find referees for journal articles that will put in much time or effort. This is in part because often referees do not get paid and their work is not counted much professionally.
  Finally, Dr. Eichengreen has pointed to a serious flaw in graduate education in economics; there is often little or no teaching of history. The same could be said about comparative economics.

• The Problem with Poor Countries’ GDP

  While Mr. Gates has 'long believed that GDP understates growth' in even rich countries, presumably including the U.S., from past professional experience at one of the major U.S. statistical agencies, I have long wondered whether inflation might be understated, implying that real output is overstated. The problem (one of many) is that companies voluntarily report price information and can be quite sensitive to the range of products covered and how the indexes are calculated. Simpy put, they do not want to be seen as having increased prices 'too much.' Needless to say, the issue is complicated.
  As regards the GDP of poor countries, the activities of multinationals cannot be ignored. Output generated by MNCs located in a developing country is considered part of that country's GDP yet the valuation of that output can be distorted by 'transfer pricing' done for bottom-line purposes.
  It is all well and good to suggest that more effort and money needs to be put into the collection and compilation of developing country statistics. However, the 'improvements' in such statistics needs to be driven by a neutral view of the proper measurment uncontanimated by private interests about which industries should be targeted for development aid.

• Economics in Denial

  If you want to understand 'the failure of economics' you need to understand how economic insights are used (or ignored) in the world outside academia. It should not be a surprise to anyone that those who identified a bubble were ignored; it was in the self-interest of the financial institutions and their regulators to ignore such voices.
  Mr. Davies appears to want the economic profession to serve the greater good rather than to provide rationalizations for the actions of the powerful. While I am all for that, it is not clear to me who is going to pay for it. At least in the U.S. it is my understanding that funding for education is more driven by the needs of the private sector, not less. Social sciences are being cut not boosted. The problem is deeper than he acknowledges.
  

• The Fire in the Monastery

  The Chinese have been trying to undermine Tibetan culture in a systematic manner for decades now, as has been well documented. Unfortunately the Tibetan Plateau is of immense strategic value to the Chinese, as are its mineral resources. The Chinese government has viewed the monasteries as key sources of resistance and also as the province of feudal overlords.
  Western support for the Tibetan cause has been viewed with suspicion, in part because of the history of outside attempts to pry Tibet away from the Chinese in previous centuries. This is now know to have included CIA involvement and the involvement of other countries.
  Consequently efforts to preserve Tibetan culture in Tibet must be distinct from military and commercial activities.
  The recent spate of immolations might well not make much of a difference unless the Chinese see changing the policies in Tibet as in their self-interest, taking into account their commercial and military interests in the region.