Bernard Haykel
叙利亚的宗派僵局
普林斯顿—叙利亚的反抗压迫性政权的革命已经演变为宗派内战，最近更是成了代理冲突。在此过程中，斗争变得越来越复杂，各阵营间的冲突日程加上深层次的社会紧张，让局面几近不可收拾。一方面，美国、欧盟、土耳其、约旦、沙特和卡塔尔支持着反对派——由各种武装派系组成的大杂烩，日程和意识形态各式…
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Tamara Wittes, Tamara Wittes
埃及-以色列和平考验
华盛顿—伊斯兰军事组织最近从埃及西奈半岛向以色列城市埃拉特（Eilat）发射了火箭，这又一次提醒我们，在埃及革命爆发两年后，两国关系仍然十分脆弱。恐怖活动轻易地就能在边境掀起一场危机，并有可能触发可悲的冲突，威胁到1979年双边关系正常化和平条约。为了避免这一结果，以色列和埃及必…
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Volker Perthes
中东实力地图的变迁
柏林—2010年末、2011年初爆发的阿拉伯革命让中东国家实力关系乱成了一锅粥，产生了赢家和输家。但是，由于大部分行动方的优势和劣势都是高度不确定的，地区实力平衡仍然极不稳定。目前的实力平衡是，埃及仍然是地区最有影响力的行动方之一，其政治和经济转型的成与败影响着其他阿拉伯国家的发…
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Shahid Javed Burki
巴基斯坦的临界点
拉合尔—巴基斯坦的政坛真相时刻正在快速临近。5月11日，4000—5000万选民将选出新一届国民大会。其结果——在一系列极端暴力事件之后——可能产生深远而广泛的影响。巴基斯坦本土恐怖组织明白，该国正处在临界点上，并大肆袭击支持世俗国家的候选人和选民。目前已有数百人被杀，选举日之前…
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Ribal al-Assad
叙利亚被挟持的斗争
伦敦—随着叙利亚内战的推进，西方对于武装反对派的态度变得日益不知所从，这反映出局势的混乱。总统巴沙尔的政权仍然恶毒而残暴，反对派中不乏以人民利益为动机者，尽管如此，这场冲突不能简单地定义为善与恶的交锋。叙利亚爱国反对派自2011年极端主义者操纵和平示威以来便一直存在，但从未联合。…
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Bennett Ramberg
叙利亚的化学幽灵
洛杉矶—自叙利亚内战爆发以来，其庞大的化学武库一直是冲突区内外挥之不去的阴影。目前以色列声称叙利亚政府已经使用了化学武器。逐步升级的担忧让美国总统奥巴马再三强调，叙利亚使用或转运化学武器的任何行为都意味着越过“红线”，总统巴沙尔·阿萨德政权将因此“被问责”。但这一警告到底有什么作…
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Sinan Ulgen
埃尔多安的库尔德算盘
伊斯坦布尔—中东的冲突不仅威胁着该地区诸多国家的安全，也威胁着它们的生存。叙利亚、伊拉克、黎巴嫩和其他国家目前无不保守宗派之争困扰，有可能依民族分裂为多个小国，改变这个政治地理形成于近一百年前的地区。土耳其总理埃尔多安在论述地区现状时提出了一个大胆的计划，欲强化土耳其的地区地位并…
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Yuliya Tymoshenko
作为解放者的铁娘子
哈尔科夫，乌克兰—监狱永远是令人哀伤的地方。但对于获知撒切尔的死讯，这里或许正合适，因为这个消息让我想起了我青年时代的被囚禁的社会，撒切尔为解放它做了很多努力。对于我们这些生长于苏联及其东欧卫星国的人来说，撒切尔永远是巾帼英雄。她不但拥护英国和西方的自由事业——特别是经济自由；也…
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Zhu Feng
朝鲜越界了吗？
北京—朝鲜放出战争狂言近一个月后，中国好像是受够了，不再对朝鲜的边缘行为保持沉默，突然表示了对这一盟国鲁莽威胁的失望。中国反常的强硬态度并不一定意味着它想抛弃金正恩政权，但至少表明了中国对朝政策的急剧变化不再向以往那样是不可想象的。中国外交部长王毅与联合国秘书长潘基文4月6日通电…
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Robert J. Barro, Rachel M. McCleary
教皇、圣徒和宗教竞争
美国剑桥—第一任非欧洲教皇的当选姗姗来迟。毕竟，教皇方济各的祖国阿根廷拥有全世界近一半（44%）的天主教徒。但无论在世界何地，天主教都与新教的竞争中节节败退。看看数据。从皈依角度讲，福音派是世界增长最快的宗教——这也是新教在罗马天主教的传统基地拉丁美洲呈迅速扩张之势的原因。190…
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