Stephen S. Roach
Long Live China’s Slowdown
NEW HAVEN – At 7.7%, China’s annual GDP growth in the first quarter of this year was slower than many expected. While the data were hardly d…
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NEW HAVEN – At 7.7%, China’s annual GDP growth in the first quarter of this year was slower than many expected. While the data were hardly d…
BEIJING – The debate is over. After six years of weighing the options, China is now firmly committed to implementing a new growth strategy. …
NEW HAVEN – Apparently, policymakers at the Federal Reserve are having second thoughts about the wisdom of open-ended quantitative easing (Q…
NEW HAVEN – Once again, China has defied the naysayers. Economic growth picked up in the final quarter of 2012 to 7.9% – half a percentage p…
NEW HAVEN – The politicization of central banking continues unabated. The resurrection of Shinzo Abe and Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party – …
NEW HAVEN – China’s recent leadership transition was widely depicted as a triumph for conservative hard-liners and a setback for the cause o…
NEW HAVEN – As America’s election season nears its finish, the debate seems to have come unhinged. Nowhere is that more evident than in the …
NEW HAVEN – The wrong medicine is being applied to America’s economy. Having misdiagnosed the ailment, policymakers have prescribed untested…
NEW HAVEN – Concern is growing that China’s economy could be headed for a hard landing. The Chinese stock market has fallen 20% over the pas…
NEW HAVEN – The American consumer is but a shadow of its former almighty self. Personal consumption in the United States expanded at only a …
Is the “Asian” economic model of mercantilism and industrial policy, written off in the 1990’s, making a comeback? Will surging inflation in China help or undermine its leaders’ efforts to move away from export-led growth? Can India keep up with its giant neighbor to the North-East? Does Asia’s rise mean that the United States and Europe must inevitably decline? Are Indonesia, Vietnam, and Bangladesh the next big global players? Can Asia’s multinational family-business dynasties continue to prosper?
The late American politician Hubert Humphrey once said that, “Asia is rich in people, rich in culture, and rich in resources. It is also rich in trouble.” But now, more than ever, Asia’s troubles – and its assets – have gone global. Its over and under-valued currencies, intense regional rivalries, and strategic uncertainties, no less than its dynamism and robust growth, have a powerful impact on economic outcomes from Africa to Argentina. Both Asia and its global role are in a state of flux, which implies risks as well as rewards for the rest of the world.
No one knows that better than Stephen S. Roach, Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and lecturer at Yale University’s School of Management and its Jackson Institute for Global Affairs. In his previous position as Morgan Stanley’s longtime Chief Economist, Stephen S. Roach became one of Wall Street’s most influential voices. Now among its most important analysts of Asia’s future, Roach's views have helped shape the thinking of policymakers throughout the region.
InThe Asia Portfolio, written exclusively for Project Syndicate, Stephen Roach examines in all their complexity the many factors – political, cultural, environmental, and historical – underlying Asia’s economic prospects and global impact. Neither a pessimist nor an optimist, Stephen Roach writes from the nuanced, realistic perspective of one who cannot afford to get it wrong.
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Stephen S. Roach was Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and the firm's Chief Economist, and currently is a senior fellow at Yale University’s Jackson Institute of Global Affairs and a senior lecturer at Yale’s School of Management. His most recent book is The Next Asia.
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