Paul De Grauwe
不会致溺的债务
伦敦—20世纪70年代以来,经济学家警告货币联盟无法再没有财政联盟的情况下维持。但是欧元区领导人并没有遵循他们的意见——其后果正在变得日益明显。如今,欧洲面临着不同的选择:要么修正这一根本性设计缺陷、迈向财政联盟,要么抛弃共同货币。选择后一个选项将导致灾难性后果。事实上,尽管在2…
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伦敦—20世纪70年代以来,经济学家警告货币联盟无法再没有财政联盟的情况下维持。但是欧元区领导人并没有遵循他们的意见——其后果正在变得日益明显。如今,欧洲面临着不同的选择:要么修正这一根本性设计缺陷、迈向财政联盟,要么抛弃共同货币。选择后一个选项将导致灾难性后果。事实上,尽管在2…
MILAN – Charles P. Kindleberger, the great economic historian, once noted that the Great Depression was so deep and so long because of “Brit…
匹兹堡—法国总统奥朗德最近在访问希腊时宣称欧洲的熊势已经结束,并敦促法国公司赴希腊投资。这可不是好建议。法国生产成本很高,但希腊成本更高。尽管希腊(还有意大利和西班牙)的真实GDP自2007年以来降了不少,但调整远未结束。事实上,放眼欧洲,你很难找到对奥朗德观点的广泛认同。意大利…
曼海姆—欧盟不惜一切代价拯救欧元的政策足以确保欧元的生存。但为了保卫“一刀切”的欧元,真的值得牺牲欧元区的竞争力以及最终的欧洲团结吗?1992年,单一市场成立,这——而不是七年后欧元的引入——为欧洲带来了自由贸易、竞争力增强和新财富。事实上,货币联盟已经成为政治和经济梦魇,饱受衰…
发自巴黎——极端的情况可以让原本不可想象的事情变成公众议题。而在法国,一个大胆出格的说法就是除非恢复其货币主权,否则就将陷入比以往任何时候都更深层次的经济萎缩之中。法国领导人在今年最初的那几周里发表的两个引人注目的经济政策声明突显了上述逻辑的力量。首先,总统弗朗索瓦·奥朗德(Fr…
WASHINGTON, DC – In July 2012, while addressing bankers in London, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi likened the euro to the bumb…
伦敦—欧洲理事会将在2月7日召开新一次会议,这次会议应该将私人投资视为刺激欧洲停滞的经济的手段。放眼欧洲,GDP增长得常用引擎无不熄火,有能力支出的经济部门只剩下非金融公司部门了。事实上,2011年欧洲上市公司手握着7500亿欧元的超额现金,接近20年新高。让它们花这笔钱相当于对…
LONDON – Europe’s great success in 2012 was to avoid becoming another of history’s failed monetary unions. European Central Bank President M…
普林斯顿—所有人的眼睛都盯着欧洲外围国,然则核心区安否?德国央行将其2013年德国年GDP增长预期降低到了0.4%。荷兰央行预计今年荷兰GDP将下降0.5%,2014年降幅还将扩大。欧元区危机或许正在步入第三阶段。第一阶段始于2008年春,北大西洋危机从美国转移到了欧元区。欧元区…
Can entrepreneurship be encouraged in Europe without changing the continent’s social welfare policies? Will Europe over-regulate finance in response to the crisis of 2008? Is Italy the new “sick man of Europe”? Has Europe neglected its eastern backyard?
Change is confronting Europe’s boardrooms and governments with new imperatives. The euro, global competition, and tight credit are forcing companies to restructure and bureaucrats to get out of their way. With capital markets, rather than obedient house banks, increasingly the source of corporate finance, Europe’s old power structures, as well as the state’s means of influencing investment, are giving way. But giving way to what? An Anglo-Saxon economy? A genuinely new European model? Something in between?
These are among the many questions tackled by Project Syndicate’s monthly series European Economies. Edited by one of the architects of the euro, Niels Thygesen of the University of Copenhagen, commentaries in European Economies address pan-European problems, developments in individual countries, and economic relations between Europe and the rest of the world.
Commentators in this series have included individuals who are shaping the continent’s economic future - people like Edmond Alphandery, former French Finance Minister and current head of France’s national pension fund; Otmar Issing, former chief economist at the European Central Bank; Mario Monti, former EU Competition Commissioner; and leading economists, ranging from Italy’s Guido Tabellini to France’s Jean-Paul Fitoussi to Belgium’s Daniel Gros.
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