Mark Y. Rosenberg is Africa Analyst at Eurasia Group.
Mark Y. Rosenberg is Africa Analyst at Eurasia Group. He holds a PhD in political science from UC Berkeley, where he was a National Science Foundation (NSF) fellow. Mark is also the Southern African analyst for Freedom House.
Simon, all that bombast and you miss the point. The ANC’s ‘broad church’ dominance has kept the post-apartheid political economy in place, despite deep - and growing - structural instabilities. It is common sense that its decline will activate these faults; indeed, it is already happening. In response, the ANC will exploit state resources and move in a more autocratic direction in order to maintain power. In the long run, South Africa’s strong institutions, active civil society and dynamic tertiary sector (well positioned to take advantage of African growth) will see the country through. South Africa is certainly not Zimbabwe, particularly because its capital is more mobile and its political elites are (now) more integrated into the private sector. In the shorter term, however: watch out.